Bitcoin’s slide from its 2025 peak is forcing major institutions to reset expectations. Standard Chartered has cut its end-2026 Bitcoin target from $150,000 to $100,000, while warning that continued weakness could pull the asset toward $50,000 in the near term. The bank also reduced its Ethereum outlook, setting a new end-2026 target of $4,000 and noting downside risk to $1,400 if current tensions persist.
ETF outflows and tighter macro conditions drove the downgrade
According to the bank, the biggest pressure point has been sustained redemptions from spot Bitcoin ETFs. More than $8 billion has left those products since November. Instruments that were expected to act as a steady source of demand have instead added supply to the market. Standard Chartered also pointed to a less supportive geopolitical backdrop and delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts, both of which have kept financial conditions tight and weighed on risk assets.
This marks the bank’s second downgrade in three months. The speed of the revisions shows how sharply sentiment has shifted as Bitcoin lost momentum.
Price action has turned into a bearish signal of its own
Bitcoin climbed to nearly $126,000 in October 2025, supported by ETF inflows, election-period optimism, and strong risk appetite. That move has since reversed hard. By early February 2026, BTC had fallen into the $60,000 range, a drop of roughly 52% from the peak.
On a year-to-date basis, the asset is down 31.5% from around $96,600 in February 2025. The source material says Bitcoin is now trading near $66,000, with a 1.35% weekly gain, while market capitalization is down 0.8%.
Long-term projection stays intact despite short-term caution
Standard Chartered did not change its longer-range view. The bank still sees Bitcoin reaching $500,000 by 2030, citing institutional adoption, limited supply, and a more mature market structure. That leaves a clear split between its short-term caution and long-term bullish stance.
The source also says on-chain data shows large holders accumulating during the dip while retail sentiment remains fearful. That mix has appeared before prior recoveries in earlier cycles. Historical post-halving patterns were also noted, with pullbacks of 50% to 80% after major highs falling within past norms.