Standard Chartered said gold did not keep falling after the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points last week, a sign that the metal’s traditional inverse relationship with real interest rates is losing strength. The bank now expects gold to average $4,650 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026, above the current third-quarter average of about $4,350.
Suki Cooper, Standard Chartered’s global head of commodities research, said structural drivers including de-dollarization, currency debasement and continued official-sector buying are supporting prices. The bank also pointed to weaker negative correlations between gold and both Treasury yields and real yields. Correlation with 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields is now close to -20% and -10%, while the inverse relationship with 2-year and 5-year real yields has also eased.
At the same time, inflows into gold ETFs have continued to recover, with August inflows reaching 121 tonnes, the highest since September 2025. Standard Chartered said speculative positioning in gold is not notably crowded, and profit-taking ahead of the Fed’s September meeting has already reduced some long exposure, limiting the scope for additional selling after the rate hike. Still, the bank said the U.S. dollar remains the main near-term risk for gold.
Standard Chartered said on Sept. 22 that gold did not continue to weaken after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points last week, suggesting the metal’s traditional inverse relationship with real rates is fading.
The bank expects gold to average $4,650 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026, above the current third-quarter average of about $4,350.
Suki Cooper, Standard Chartered’s global head of commodities research, said structural factors including de-dollarization, currency debasement and continued official-sector gold buying are supporting prices.
Data cited by the bank showed gold’s correlation with 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields is now close to -20% and -10%, respectively. Its negative correlation with 2-year and 5-year real yields has also weakened markedly.
Gold ETF inflows have also kept recovering. In August alone, inflows reached 121 tonnes, the highest level since September 2025.
Standard Chartered said speculative positioning in gold is not obviously crowded at present. Profit-taking ahead of the Fed’s September meeting has already reduced some long exposure, which means additional selling pressure after the latest rate hike may be limited.
Even so, the bank said the U.S. dollar remains the main short-term risk for gold. Its economists expect the Fed to raise rates again in December and then keep rates unchanged throughout 2027.
Cooper said gold’s negative correlation with the dollar is now clearly stronger than its correlation with real rates. If the dollar strengthens further, that could put short-term pressure on gold prices.
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