Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, said Strategy’s first Bitcoin sale since 2022 may carry a broader market signal even if the transaction itself was small relative to the company’s roughly $58 billion BTC position.
In a note to clients, Kendrick said Ether outperformed Bitcoin on the day the sale was announced even as crypto prices weakened across the board. Since Monday, ETH has risen 5% against BTC. He described the move as one of the strongest relative gains for Ether during a down session for Bitcoin since the start of 2024, and wrote that Monday may mark the point at which Ether begins a new phase of sustained outperformance versus Bitcoin.
ETH/BTC ratio is central to the call
The argument comes as investors continue to debate whether Ether can regain momentum after trailing Bitcoin for the last two years. Since Ethereum shifted from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake in September 2022, ETH has fallen 66% against BTC and hit a five-year low in April 2025. Over the past year, that trend has started to ease, with Ether climbing more than 60% from its lows.
Kendrick kept his longer-term targets intact. He expects ETH to reach $4,000 by the end of 2026 and $40,000 by 2030, while the ETH-BTC ratio could rise from about 0.028 now to 0.04 by year-end. On that basis, Ether would outperform Bitcoin by more than 40%, whether both assets move higher or lower in absolute terms.
Why Ethereum treasury models look different
Kendrick said the larger point is not the roughly $2.5 million Bitcoin trade itself, but what it reveals about the economics of Bitcoin treasury firms versus Ethereum treasury firms. Companies built around Bitcoin holdings generally rely on appreciation in BTC and access to capital markets. Because Bitcoin does not generate income on its own, those firms may need to sell holdings or raise capital to cover costs and obligations.
Ether-based treasury models have a different feature: staking. ETH can generate around 3% annual yield, giving firms a source of recurring income without liquidating their core holdings. Kendrick pointed to Tom Lee’s Bitmine (BMNR), which holds an ETH reserve worth $11 billion without building that position through accumulated debt. Even though the investment is currently deep underwater, the company is generating about $258 million a year from staking operations, while expected rewards through the MAVAN staking platform are estimated at close to $300 million annually.
He said staking revenue makes Ethereum treasury operators more self-sustaining than Bitcoin-centered peers. Bitmine and SharpLink Gaming (SBET) are trading at lower premiums than Strategy at present, but Kendrick expects that gap to narrow if investors start assigning value to the recurring income produced by ETH holdings.