Standard Chartered says the crypto market may go through a final capitulation phase before any broader recovery takes hold. In its latest view, Bitcoin could fall to $50,000 in the coming months, while Ether may drop to $1,400, suggesting the current correction has not fully run its course.
Macro headwinds and softer ETF demand remain the main pressure points
Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s head of digital asset research, said in a client note that the market is being weighed down by a weaker macro backdrop and slower ETF inflows. He argued that while the US economy is showing signs of slowing, markets still do not expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates quickly. If liquidity support arrives later than hoped, risk assets are likely to stay under pressure, and crypto is unlikely to break away from that pattern.
That shift is already showing up in positioning. According to the bank, holdings in digital asset ETFs have declined recently, with average Bitcoin ETF positions down about 25%. With the liquidity outlook still unclear, ETF investors appear more willing to cut exposure than build fresh positions on dips, a setup that can intensify volatility.
Bank sets downside markers at $50,000 for BTC and $1,400 for ETH
Kendrick said the current correction is not yet complete and that prices may need to move lower before a base is formed. Standard Chartered’s downside targets place Bitcoin at $50,000 or slightly below and Ether at $1,400. In the bank’s description, that would amount to a final washout period marked by weaker confidence and forced unwinds in leveraged positions.
Even so, the bank does not frame those levels as the start of a lasting bearish trend. Instead, it said such prices would more likely represent strategic entry zones than confirmation of a long-term reversal.
This drawdown looks different from the 2022 crypto winter
Standard Chartered also drew a distinction between the current pullback and the market collapse seen in 2022. Back then, failures at platforms and liquidity stress triggered a chain reaction across the sector. In the current downturn, the bank noted that there have been no major institutional failures or exchange collapses.
That difference, in its view, points to a more mature market structure. Risk management practices and regulatory frameworks are stronger than they were in earlier cycles, and systemic risk appears more contained, even if price swings remain sharp.
Long-term targets stay in place for the end of 2026
While cutting its near-term expectations, Standard Chartered kept its longer-term outlook intact. The bank still projects that Bitcoin could recover to $100,000 by the end of 2026, with Ether reaching $4,000. Other major digital assets, it said, are expected to broadly move in line with the leading tokens.
Under that framework, the next few months would be a period of choppy trading and market cleansing rather than the end of the bull cycle. The bank’s message is that weak liquidity conditions and fading fund momentum remain the immediate issues for the market.