A leading strategy firm bought 24,869 BTC at an average price of $80,985 in the past week, bringing its total holdings to 843,738 BTC, worth $63.8 billion. CEO Michael Saylor hinted at further purchases on May 17, and observers estimate the firm added roughly 15,466 BTC that week alone. Yet Bitcoin's price has failed to break out, hovering in the $78,000–$82,000 range for weeks.
ETF Inflows vs. Miner Supply
Spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated nearly 19,000 BTC over just nine trading days in April. BlackRock's IBIT ETF has drawn over $66 billion in net inflows since launch. ETFs saw a single-day inflow of $630 million on May 1, and the first two days of May combined reached $1.1 billion. In contrast, post-halving miners produce only about 13,500 BTC per month, while institutional demand approaches 50,000 BTC monthly — a clear supply-demand imbalance favoring buyers.
Old Whale Wallets Dump Systematically
According to analytics firm Alphractal, stale whale wallets are the main culprit behind the flat price trend. Early holders who accumulated BTC years ago are now transferring large amounts. Data shows retail investors posted net buys on 14 of the last 21 trading days, while whale wallets were net sellers — a systematic distribution strategy rather than panic selling.
On May 11, a wallet dormant since 2013 moved 500 BTC. Whale Alert data indicates that in 2026, 72% of coins exiting wallets inactive for over seven years changed hands via OTC trades. Since the halving, 38,400 BTC have been transferred from 47 wallets untouched for more than five years, matching ETF demand over three months. ETF buyers effectively provide exit liquidity for early holders. This tug-of-war keeps prices confined.
The steadiness of BTC prices, despite ETF and corporate accumulation, is being explained by discreet OTC sales from dormant whale wallets, which limit impact on public exchange prices.
Potential Breakout Once Whale Selling Fades
Alphractal suggests that when the wave of old whale sales subsides, there will be little to counter surging institutional demand. On-chain metrics such as Liveliness, Coin Days Destroyed, and Days at Profit are expected to align. Until then, Bitcoin's price is likely to remain volatile within the $78,000–$82,000 range.