Strategy (MSTR), holding roughly $58 billion in Bitcoin, made its first BTC sale since 2022 — a modest $2.5 million transaction. Yet Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, argues the market reaction may signal a broader shift: Ether (ETH) could be entering a period of outperformance relative to Bitcoin.
ETH/BTC Surges 5% on Sale Day, Among Biggest Moves Since 2024
On the day of the announcement, despite overall crypto price weakness, Ether significantly outperformed Bitcoin. Kendrick noted in a client note that ETH rose 5% against BTC since Monday. Among sessions where Bitcoin declined, this ranks as one of the largest ETH/BTC gains since early 2024. He wrote: “I view [Monday] as the start of ETH outperformance relative to BTC.”
This call comes after ETH/BTC had fallen 66% since Ethereum's transition to proof-of-stake in September 2022, hitting a five-year low in April 2025. But over the past year, ETH has recovered more than 60% from those lows, suggesting the downtrend may be reversing.
End-2026 Target: $4,000; ETH/BTC Ratio Forecast at 0.04
Kendrick maintains a long-term bullish stance on Ether, with price targets of $4,000 by end-2026 and $40,000 by 2030. He expects the ETH/BTC ratio to rise from roughly 0.028 currently to 0.04 by year-end — implying Ether outperforms Bitcoin by over 40% even if both assets move in the same direction. This is not his first such prediction; earlier this year he made a similar case citing the U.S. Clarity Act, which he said would create a regulatory framework benefiting DeFi and ETH.
Different Business Models: Bitcoin Treasuries vs. Ether Treasuries
Kendrick emphasized that the significance of Strategy's sale lies not in the $2.5 million amount but in what it reveals about the economics of companies holding different digital assets. Bitcoin treasury firms like Strategy depend heavily on BTC price appreciation and capital market activity to sustain their business models, as Bitcoin generates no yield. This can force occasional asset sales or capital raises to cover costs. In contrast, Ether’s staking yield and DeFi ecosystem may provide treasury firms with more sustainable cash flows — a structural advantage that could drive ETH relative strength going forward.
Market participants are watching closely whether this ratio move can sustain. Kendrick's analysis offers a benchmark for those tracking ETH/BTC, but outcomes hinge on macro liquidity and regulatory developments.