Strategy’s mNAV has fallen below 1, a threshold that signals a sharp change in how the market is valuing the company. Its overall valuation now sits below the value of the Bitcoin it holds, putting strain on the premium-based model that helped fund repeated BTC purchases.
According to the source material, Strategy’s stock has dropped to around $82, down roughly 85% from its record high reached in November 2024. That slide has pushed the company’s enterprise value down to about $50.4 billion. Using a Bitcoin price of about $60,000, the firm’s BTC holdings are valued at roughly $51.1 billion. On that basis, the company’s mNAV has moved under 1.
Why the mNAV reading matters
mNAV is calculated by dividing enterprise value by the total value of a company’s Bitcoin reserves. Enterprise value here includes the market capitalization of common stock, total debt, and the value of perpetual preferred shares, with U.S. dollar cash reserves subtracted. When mNAV is above 1, investors are assigning a premium to the company beyond the value of its Bitcoin. Once it drops below 1, the market is placing a discount on that structure instead.
That is unfamiliar territory for Strategy. For years, investors valued the company well above the book value of its Bitcoin position, giving Michael Saylor and his management team room to issue stock, raise debt, and buy more BTC. A sub-1 mNAV does not mean the company can no longer sell new shares. It does mean that issuing equity at current levels would amount to selling ownership below underlying asset value, a move likely to intensify dilution concerns.
Investors are drawing comparisons to closed-end funds
The article notes that some of Strategy’s recent Bitcoin accumulation has already diluted common shareholders, drawing criticism from parts of the crypto community and the investment market. The broader concern is that Strategy is starting to resemble a closed-end fund more than an operating company.
The comparison is not random. Products such as Grayscale Bitcoin Trust traded at large premiums during periods of strong demand, then shifted into persistent discounts when sentiment weakened. Closed-end structures often struggle to eliminate those discounts because they lack an effective redemption mechanism. Without that arbitrage channel, a gap between share price and underlying asset value can stay in place for a long time.
Operating business and capital options still set it apart
The source also argues that Strategy is not identical to a traditional closed-end trust. It remains an operating company, which gives it more flexibility in managing liabilities and capital. That can include issuing debt or equity when conditions are favorable, redeeming securities early, or refinancing existing instruments.
It also still has its software business, which generates operating cash flow. That matters. Strategy is not simply a passive Bitcoin vehicle, even if the market is increasingly treating it that way. With mNAV now below 1, the company’s valuation framework is under closer scrutiny than before.