A new study by on-chain analyst Andrey Sergeenkov suggests that most users on prediction market platform Polymarket are not making money. Based on an analysis of 2.5 million wallet addresses on Polygon, the research found that roughly 84.1% of Polymarket traders have posted losses, underscoring how difficult the market remains for average participants.
Meaningful profits are concentrated in a tiny minority
The study shows that substantial gains are rare. Only 2% of traders made more than $1,000, while just 0.033% earned $100,000. The chances of consistently making $5,000 per month were estimated at less than 1%. These figures suggest that while Polymarket attracts attention and trading activity, repeatable profits are limited to a very small slice of users.
Long-term profitable participation is even less common
The research also highlights how difficult it is to sustain success over time. Among traders who were profitable, only 2.6% remained active for more than a year. That points to a market where even those who win may struggle to maintain an edge as competition intensifies and pricing becomes more efficient.
Platform growth continues despite weak trader outcomes
Even with these findings, Polymarket is still expanding. The platform recently partnered with MLB as its exclusive prediction market and reported a roughly 130x increase in trading volume from 2024 to 2025. It is also introducing a new stablecoin, Polymarket USD, to replace USDC.e. Still, concerns remain that a new referral program could bring in more retail users without enough education about the risks and complexity of prediction trading.
The broader takeaway is clear: rapid platform growth does not automatically translate into profitable outcomes for individual traders. For retail participants, the data paints Polymarket as a fast-growing venue where sustainable gains remain statistically uncommon.