A new study on Bitcoin network connectivity found that the system remains surprisingly resilient during random failures of the global submarine cable network. According to the modeling, Bitcoin only starts to fragment in a meaningful way when 72% to 92% of existing submarine cables fail at the same time, disconnecting more than 10% of nodes.
That finding points to strong durability under non-targeted infrastructure stress. Submarine cables carry most of the world’s long-distance digital traffic, so large-scale outages would normally be expected to damage cross-border communication. In the study’s simulations, though, Bitcoin’s node network stayed broadly intact unless disruption reached an extreme level.
Most real cable incidents had limited effect on Bitcoin nodes
The researchers also reviewed 68 real-world cable fault incidents from the past decade. Nearly nine out of ten of those events affected less than 5% of Bitcoin nodes. One example cited in the analysis was the 2024 cable cuts off the coast of West Africa. The regional impact was serious, but the global Bitcoin node network continued to operate in a stable manner.
The historical record and the simulations point in the same direction. Random cable failures can create localized disruption, yet they do not easily break the network at a global level. Temporary stress is one thing. Broad fragmentation is much harder to trigger.
Targeted attacks on key cables could have outsized impact
The picture changes when disruption is deliberate. The study examined what would happen if attackers focused on submarine cables with high betweenness, meaning links that are especially important to international data routing. In that case, disabling just 20% of those strategically important cables could produce an effect comparable to randomly knocking out nearly all submarine cables worldwide.
That result shows a sharp difference between arbitrary outages and precise infrastructure attacks. Bitcoin appears difficult to destabilize through random physical failures, but much more sensitive when the most critical routes are singled out. The published analysis stated: “Bitcoin survives massive random cable outages. Targeting key hosting providers could disrupt the network with minimal infrastructure damage.”
Hosting concentration and Tor growth shape resilience
The study also highlighted concentration in node hosting. A substantial share of publicly reachable Bitcoin nodes is hosted by major providers including Hetzner, Amazon, Comcast, OVH, and Google Cloud. The researchers found that removing as little as 5% of routing capacity within those dominant networks could create significant connectivity problems for the broader system.
At the same time, the growth of Tor has added another layer of redundancy. By 2025, slightly more than 60% of Bitcoin nodes were accessible through Tor, up from only a handful in the early 2010s. That gives the network alternative communication paths when conventional internet routes fail. The analysis also noted that many Tor relays are located in European countries with strong fiber infrastructure, which supports rerouting during disruptions.
The study’s central message is narrow but clear: Bitcoin can absorb huge random cable outages, yet key physical routes, hosting concentration, and routing chokepoints remain the network’s most exposed pressure points.