TD Cowen has reduced its price target for MicroStrategy (MSTR) from $440 to $350, a 20.5% decrease, while maintaining a Buy rating. Analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonathan Navarrete attributed the revision to lowered Bitcoin price expectations and a reduced valuation multiple for the company's Bitcoin holdings.
Bitcoin Earnings Outlook Adjusted Downward, Yet Confidence Remains
TD Cowen now forecasts MicroStrategy's FY2026 "BTC earnings" at $7.87 billion, down from $10.17 billion in 2025. However, analysts remain confident in the firm's strategy of leveraging market demand for Bitcoin through continuous debt and equity issuances. MicroStrategy's balance sheet remains deeply tied to Bitcoin's price trajectory, making it a high-beta proxy for the cryptocurrency.
Three Bitcoin Price Scenarios by December 2026
The report outlines three potential scenarios: Base case projects Bitcoin reaching $140,000 by December 2026, with MicroStrategy adding $5 billion in Bitcoin quarterly; Bull case sees Bitcoin rising to $175,000; Bear case envisions Bitcoin falling to $25,000, potentially halting purchases. This range reflects the inherent volatility in the crypto market, but TD Cowen believes MicroStrategy's model can navigate most outcomes.
Other Digital Asset Treasury Companies Maintained at Buy
TD Cowen also reaffirmed Buy ratings for four digital asset treasury firms: Sharplink (price target $16), Strive ($26), Nakamoto Holdings ($1), and The Smarter Web Company (£1). Each employs a similar treasury strategy, using Bitcoin or digital assets as core reserves. The coverage highlights the growing institutional adoption of Bitcoin as a corporate asset.
Recent developments include Michael Saylor's remarks about potentially selling Bitcoin holdings by year-end, though the company still signals a long-term hold strategy. MicroStrategy's latest quarterly report showed approximately $1.35 billion in Bitcoin paper profits. Meanwhile, SpaceX disclosed holding 18,712 BTC in an S-1 filing, further underscoring the expanding corporate Bitcoin footprint.
TD Cowen's report reflects the evolving valuation methodology for crypto-exposed companies, balancing traditional financial metrics with digital asset volatility. MicroStrategy remains the largest public Bitcoin holder with over 200,000 BTC, representing more than 1% of total circulating supply. The stock's future performance will hinge on both Bitcoin's price path and management's ability to execute its capital strategy through market cycles.