According to ChainCatcher, Wall Street investment bank TD Cowen has lowered its price target on Bitcoin treasury company Nakamoto Inc. (NASDAQ: NAKA), cutting the split-adjusted target from $40 to $17. That marks a 58% reduction, though the firm kept its Buy rating on the stock.
TD Cowen analysts said the change was mainly driven by pressure that falling Bitcoin prices have placed on Nakamoto’s highly leveraged capital structure. Even so, the new target still implies about 275% upside from the company’s current share price of $4.65. The analysts added that the stock remains highly sensitive to swings in Bitcoin.
TD Cowen expects Bitcoin to recover to $100,000 by the end of 2026. That level would still be about 25% below the all-time high of $126,000 reached in October last year. The bank also expects Nakamoto to suspend further Bitcoin purchases until 2027.
The analysts said Nakamoto’s core value still comes from its Bitcoin holdings. The company currently owns 4,467 BTC valued at about $290 million, ranking 22nd among publicly listed companies by Bitcoin holdings worldwide. At the same time, its debt and preferred equity financing structure has reduced the asset value available to common shareholders.
Nakamoto has recently completed several financial adjustments, including repaying about $45 million in debt, extending the maturity of $105 million in principal to June 2027, lowering financing costs, and approving a $25 million share buyback plan.
On the operating side, the company has shut down its previously run medical clinic business and will focus going forward on Bitcoin media, asset management, and advisory services.
Data cited in the report showed that NAKA shares have fallen more than 71% so far this year, while Bitcoin is down about 26% over the same period. Market attention is shifting from continued BTC accumulation to the balance-sheet structure and financing capacity of Bitcoin treasury companies.