Wall Street investment bank TD Cowen released a new investor note Thursday, laying out a clear price framework for Bitcoin through the end of 2026. The bank's baseline prediction is $140,000 per BTC, with an upside scenario reaching $175,000 and a downside of $25,000.
Three scenarios for Bitcoin by December 2026
Analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonathan Navarrete outlined three paths: the base case of $140,000; the upside case of $175,000, representing a 40% gain from previous all-time highs; and a bear case where Bitcoin crashes 80% to $25,000 due to market collapse or loss of capital market access.
Strategy target cut 20% to $350, Buy maintained
Based on lower Bitcoin price assumptions and a reduced earnings multiple, TD Cowen lowered its price target on Strategy from $440 to $350, a 20.5% reduction. Yet the bank kept a Buy rating, projecting 2026 fiscal year “BTC Yield” of $7.87 billion (down from $10.17 billion in 2025). The analysts believe Strategy's “effective leverage” logic remains intact as long as it sustains roughly $5 billion in quarterly Bitcoin purchases.
Four crypto treasury firms initiated with Buy ratings
TD Cowen initiated coverage on four emerging digital asset treasury companies, all rated Buy, arguing that the sector “is likely here to stay and will attract more investor attention.” The firms include: Sharplink (SBET) target $16, focused on Ethereum treasury with ETH assumed at $3,650 by end-2026; Strive (ASST) target $26, pure Bitcoin accumulation plays; Nakamoto Holdings (NAKA) target $1, combining internal treasury with minority stakes yet facing a $210 million Kraken loan maturity; and Smarter Web Company (SWC.LN) target £1, a UK firm balancing traditional web design with Bitcoin accumulation via capital markets.