Tesla has formally opened its Cybercab robotaxi service to the public in Austin, Morgan Stanley said in a Sept. 4 research note, while keeping its Neutral rating on the stock and a $400 price target. Riders can use Tesla’s Robotaxi app to choose either the two-seat Cybercab or a four-seat Model Y for driverless trips.
The bank said the exact scale of current commercial operations remains unclear. Still, several signals point to a broader rollout in progress. Morgan Stanley added that Tesla’s stock outperformance on Sept. 3 had already reflected market recognition of progress in the company’s Robotaxi business. In its view, any additional upside will hinge on whether public data can show continued fleet expansion.
Cybercab was built as a native driverless vehicle
Cybercab is Tesla’s first mass-produced model designed from the ground up for autonomous ride-hailing. The vehicle has no steering wheel, no accelerator pedal and no brake pedal, and operates entirely through Tesla’s Full Self-Driving, or FSD, system. Inside, the cabin has two seats and a 22-inch center display running a real-time 3D user interface based on Epic Games’ Unreal Engine.
The vehicle uses a matte gold finish and butterfly-style doors. Ground clearance is 144 mm. According to the report, the layout improves ease of entry and exit. The trunk has 572 liters of capacity and can fit two checked suitcases and two carry-on cases, with room for a folding wheelchair as well.
Accessibility was another focus in the report. Seat height is close to wheelchair seat height, door handles and roof buttons include Braille markings, and Grok voice controls allow visually impaired passengers to book rides and manage in-cabin functions on their own.
Powertrain, cost and automated operations
Cybercab uses a single-motor front-wheel-drive setup with maximum power of 163 kW and curb weight of about 1.41 metric tons. Battery capacity is about 47.6 kWh, with range of roughly 483 km. Tesla said the vehicle is expected to cost less than $30,000 and have operating costs below $0.2 per mile.
The vehicle also supports wireless inductive charging and can connect to an automated cleaning process, creating a driverless operating loop for charging and maintenance.
Texas registrations show 45 Cybercabs
Texas DMV data showed that Tesla had registered 420 autonomous vehicles in the state as of Sept. 3. Of that total, 45 were Cybercabs and the other 375 were Robotaxi-version Model Ys. Cybercab registrations rose from 7 to 45 in the days leading up to the launch event.
The report stressed that 45 is a DMV registration count, not the number of vehicles actually carrying passengers on the road at the same time. Videos circulating on X showed a large number of Cybercabs driving on Austin streets this week. The number available for commercial use has not been disclosed, but the intensity of road testing suggests Tesla is preparing for a larger fleet deployment.
Tesla has also launched a new page allowing customers to express interest in buying Cybercab fleets. The form asks for company information, deployment region and partnership direction, with options including ride-hailing fleet procurement, mobility hubs and infrastructure, and event partnerships. The report said this shows Tesla sees Cybercab not only as a mobility service tool but also as a product it can sell directly.
Unsupervised driving mileage tops 1 million miles
Tesla vice president of Autopilot and AI Ashok Elluswamy said at the Cybercab event that unsupervised driving mileage had surpassed 1 million miles.
That compares with 380,000 miles disclosed on Tesla’s second-quarter 2026 earnings call. The increase amounts to about 620,000 miles in six weeks, a marked acceleration from the earlier pace. The report said Tesla had needed more than a year to reach the first 380,000 miles. Tesla also said there had been "no notable accidents" during that stretch of driving.
Scale gap with Waymo remains clear
Tesla still trails Waymo by a wide margin on deployment scale. Waymo has about 4,000 autonomous vehicles operating across 14 U.S. cities and completes more than 500,000 rides per week. In Texas alone, Waymo has 988 registered vehicles, versus Tesla’s 420 total registrations in the state.
Waymo said last week that its cumulative driving mileage had reached 200 million miles. It had already crossed the 1 million-mile mark in 2023.
On cost, Cybercab is estimated at roughly $23,000 to $25,000 per vehicle, while Waymo’s vehicle cost is put at about $70,000 to $150,000. The report cited Goldman Sachs estimates that Cybercab has a cost advantage of $0.05 to $0.30 per mile over rivals.
Pricing comparisons in the report showed Tesla’s Robotaxi service in San Francisco averaging $8.17 per trip, about half of Uber’s $17.47 and about 40% of Waymo’s $19.69. The report said that if Cybercab reaches large-scale deployment at lower cost, the pricing structure of the ride-hailing market could change.
Morgan Stanley’s $400 target broken into five segments
Morgan Stanley broke its $400 target price into five business components. Core automotive was valued at $45 per share, based on around 8.5 million units of sales in 2040, an 8.4% EBIT margin excluding FSD, a 10.9% weighted average cost of capital and a 10x 2040 exit EBITDA multiple.
Network services accounted for $144 per share, the largest single component. That model assumes an 80% FSD attach rate in 2040 and monthly ARPU of $240.
Tesla mobility, meaning the Robotaxi network, was valued at $120 per share. Morgan Stanley used a discounted cash flow model and assumed about 5 million Tesla vehicles operating on the network in 2040 at roughly $1.33 per mile.
Energy contributed $35 per share, while humanoid robotics contributed $56 per share after a 50% probability discount.
The report said a $400 target implies about 75x expected 2027 earnings, a valuation that already bakes in substantial expectations for future Robotaxi network revenue and FSD subscription income. Every 10% change in FSD attach rate would affect the valuation of network services by about $18 per share.
Morgan Stanley listed upside risks as higher FSD attach rates, new battery cost milestones, new vehicle launches, faster Robotaxi rollout and progress with Optimus. Downside risks included tougher competition, execution risks tied to FSD and Robotaxi, regulatory uncertainty, China exposure and dilution.
The source article added that the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, or NHTSA, has already raised questions over whether Cybercab complies with federal motor vehicle safety standards, but the source text was truncated at that point and did not provide more detail.