The worst of bitcoin's 50% drawdown may already be behind us.
The Hash Ribbon indicator — which compares the 30-day and 60-day moving averages of hash rate — is close to signaling the end of a three-month miner capitulation, one of the longest on record, according to Glassnode data. A recovery signal is triggered when the 30-day average crosses back above the 60-day, indicating miners are returning online and network stress is easing.
The mechanism is straightforward: when mining revenue drops below operating costs, less efficient miners shut down machines and sell BTC reserves to fund electricity, debt and overhead. That combination reduces hash rate and adds sustained sell pressure. Since late November, bitcoin has fallen from around $90,000 to a low near $60,000 in early February, before rebounding to roughly $65,000 as of press time.
Such major corrections are typical during miner stress events. Since 2011, there have been about 20 mining capitulations, most coinciding with local or major bottoms, including January 2015, December 2018 and December 2022.
Hash Rate Rebounds, Miner Confidence Returns
The total computational power securing the network — hash rate — is now rebounding, signaling renewed confidence among miners. At the same time, bitcoin is trading below its estimated average production cost of $66,000, a level often associated with deep value, according to checkonchain data. The last time this occurred was November 2022, when BTC bottomed near $15,500.
Historically, when the Hash Ribbon crossover aligns with improving price momentum, it has marked strong accumulation zones. That moment is approaching.