Tom Lee said investors waiting for a crypto market bottom in October may need to rethink the risks of trying to time their entry, arguing that Bitcoin’s long-term gains are heavily concentrated in a small number of trading sessions. In a post on X, he pointed to Fundstrat’s “Rule of 10 Best Days,” which holds that a large share of Bitcoin’s historical upside has come during only a few standout days each year.
Citing the data referenced in that framework, Lee said investors who captured Bitcoin’s 10 best trading days would have posted cumulative returns of about 162%. Excluding those same 10 days, returns would fall to -14%. His point was that missing only a handful of major upside sessions can significantly reduce overall performance.
Lee added that this week may already count as one of those 10 best days, and said long-term investors should favor holding, or HODLing, rather than attempting to pick an exact bottom. He has previously argued that frequent in-and-out trading often causes investors to miss the market’s most important advances. Fundstrat’s research, he said, also shows that gains tend to cluster in a limited number of extreme up days, meaning those waiting for a pullback to re-enter may miss a crucial move.
Tom Lee said investors waiting for a crypto market bottom in October may need to reassess the risks of market timing, arguing that Bitcoin’s long-term gains have been concentrated in only a small number of trading days.
In a post on X, Lee cited Fundstrat’s “Rule of 10 Best Days” and said Bitcoin’s long-term performance is heavily driven by a handful of standout sessions. Based on the historical data he referenced, investors who captured Bitcoin’s 10 best trading days would have seen cumulative returns of about 162%. If those 10 days were excluded, returns would drop to -14%.
Lee wrote that “this week has already become one of those 10 best days,” adding that long-term investors should choose to hold, or HODL, rather than try to buy the exact bottom.
He has previously said that investors who trade in and out of the market too often tend to miss the most important upside phases. According to the Fundstrat research he referenced, market returns are usually concentrated in a small number of extreme up days, and waiting for a pullback before re-entering can mean missing a key rally.
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