Tom Lee: September Rate Hike Odds Drop Below 40% After Jobs Report

Tom Lee: September Rate Hike Odds Drop Below 40% After Jobs Report

N
News Editor
2026-08-07 15:30:52
Tom Lee says the market's dovish response to the July jobs report reflects "inflation confusion syndrome." He sees inflation on a downward path, and notes the probability of a September rate hike has fallen below 40%, down from 75% two weeks ago. He warns against fighting the last war.

Tom Lee said on X that the market's strongly “dovish” reaction to the July jobs report is another example of what he calls “inflation confusion syndrome.” He argues inflation is on a downward path and that markets had been too hasty and hawkish. The probability of a September rate hike fell below 40% after the report, down from 75% two weeks earlier, and many economists had argued for an earlier hike. His advice: “Don't fight the last war.”

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