Markets have converged on a near-unanimous call for the Federal Reserve’s April 29 FOMC meeting. CME FedWatch shows a 99% probability that the Fed keeps its target range at 350 to 375 basis points, leaving only a 1% chance of a 25-basis-point hike and no implied chance of a cut.
That view has held steady for at least a week. A month earlier, traders were assigning a 6.2% chance to a hike, a sign that some were still guarding against stronger-than-expected economic data. That concern has largely faded in current pricing.
Prediction markets align with futures pricing
Polymarket’s June FOMC contract points in the same direction. Traders there assign a 93% chance of no rate change at the June 16–17 meeting, with a 4.5% probability for a 25-basis-point cut and 1.6% for a hike. Total volume in that market has passed $10.5 million. Even the “50+ bps decrease” bracket, despite carrying an implied probability below 1%, has attracted more than $2.8 million in trading.
July pricing shows slightly more uncertainty, but the dominant outcome remains unchanged. For the July 28–29 FOMC meeting, Polymarket places the odds of no change at 85%, a 25-basis-point cut at 10%, a hike at 3.4%, and a larger cut at 2.4%. That market launched on March 19, 2026, and has since recorded $3.9 million in volume.
Kalshi’s July contract sits in nearly the same range. Traders there put the probability of a hold at 84%, with a 12% chance of a 25-basis-point cut and 4% for a hike. Total volume on the contract stands at $79,441.
Inflation and labor data keep cut expectations in check
The hold consensus is being shaped by two data points cited in the report: March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year over year and an unemployment rate of 4.3%. Together, those figures have left traders with little basis to expect a clear policy shift in either direction.
The broader 2026 picture looks similar. Polymarket’s market on how many rate cuts the Fed will deliver this year has generated $20.9 million in trading volume since launching in September 2025. As of late April, the leading outcome is zero cuts at 40%. One cut is priced at 28%, while two cuts stand at 16%.
Kalshi’s equivalent annual market echoes that setup. The probability of exactly zero cuts is 39.9%, followed by one cut at 27.5% and two cuts at 15.8%. Total volume in that market has reached $3.18 million.
Attention shifts to the next jobs and CPI reports
Both platforms use the same framework for counting annual cuts: each 25-basis-point reduction counts as one cut, while a 50-basis-point move counts as two. Emergency cuts outside scheduled meetings are included. Kalshi’s market closes on Dec. 31, 2026, with settlement projected for Jan. 1, 2027.
The next signals traders are watching are the upcoming U.S. jobs report and the next CPI release. Until those numbers arrive, market pricing still points to one base case: the Fed stays on hold.