The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield moved back above 5.2% overnight, hitting its highest level since 2007 and weighing on global risk assets. Bitcoin fell back toward $83,000, while altcoins posted larger losses.
Cloud, chief analyst at Huobi HTX, said the latest decline looks more like a normal pullback after a rebound than the starting point of a trend reversal. He said elevated Treasury yields are mainly pressuring valuations, while their effect on total liquidity remains limited. He also said the crypto market’s capital structure and holders’ cost basis have not been damaged.
Cloud said the latest leg down looks more like position clearing ahead of key data releases. He warned that the market should watch the divergence between Bitcoin and altcoins. In a phase of marginal liquidity tightening, capital tends to move toward leading assets with the highest certainty. Altcoins, in his view, lack fresh inflows and carry heavier leverage, which has amplified their pullback.
He said that split will likely continue ahead of this week’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data and nonfarm payrolls report. If the data comes in below expectations, altcoins may show greater upside elasticity, but the risks would also be higher. If the data beats expectations, Bitcoin’s relative strength would stand out even more.
Cloud added that whether Bitcoin can stabilize at a key support level will be the main signal for judging whether this round of pullback has ended.
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