Long-dated U.S. Treasury yields kept rising ahead of equities, setting the tone for risk assets. The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.56%, its highest level since 2004, while the 10-year yield closed at 5.24%, marking a fifth straight daily increase and its highest reading since June 2007.
That move in longer-term rates weighed on Wall Street on Monday (Sept. 28). All four major U.S. stock indexes finished in the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 347 points, the S&P 500 lost 0.77%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.92%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index posted the steepest decline, down more than 1.6%.
Tech and chip stocks came under pressure
Large technology names mostly moved lower. Meta fell 4.79%, Amazon and Microsoft declined 1.41% and 1.35%, and both Apple and Alphabet slipped by less than 1%.
Chip stocks saw heavier selling. Qualcomm dropped 7.17% to close at $187.48. Arm fell about 9%, Marvell lost about 5%, AMD declined 3.61%, Broadcom slipped 0.92%, and SK Hynix ADR fell 5.03%.
Oil and U.S.-Iran talks remained in focus
Another source of pressure came from the Strait of Hormuz. According to the report, U.S.-Iran talks last week failed to produce a result, and shipping through the waterway had yet to recover. Energy prices therefore remained difficult to bring down. Brent crude has recently continued to trade around $100 per barrel, and the market is concerned that inflation could push the Federal Reserve toward another rate hike.
NVIDIA rose against the broader trend after expanding buybacks
While most major tech stocks fell, NVIDIA gained 1.68% to close at $228.86. An official company release said the board had increased its share repurchase authorization by $150 billion, bringing the total remaining authorization to $235 billion. The company expects to complete the program by fiscal 2028.
The report said this was the largest single increase in buyback authorization on record, exceeding Apple’s $110 billion addition in 2024.
Jensen Huang said, 「NVIDIA’s growth comes from a once-in-a-generation platform shift in AI and accelerated computing」, adding that the authorization reflects the company’s confidence in its long-term opportunities.
Wall Street views diverged on what matters most next
Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets, said oil has limited downside and greater upside risk until shipping in the Strait of Hormuz truly resumes and the U.S. and Iran reach a long-term agreement. In his view, the global economy will have to adjust to the reality of constrained energy flows.
Chris Larkin, a strategist at E*Trade, focused on equities. He said rising oil prices and higher yields make it difficult for U.S. stocks to push higher. Unless Friday’s jobs data comes in far from expectations, market attention is likely to remain on Treasuries and energy.
Seema Shah, a strategist at Principal Asset Management, took the bond-market view. Her position was that yields still have room to move higher as long as the U.S. economy holds up and investment demand does not cool.
PCE and payrolls are this week’s two key tests
This week’s U.S. economic calendar centers on two releases. Personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, data is due Wednesday, followed by the September nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. Economists expect roughly 90,000 jobs to be added, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%.
Yerbol Orynbayev, president of TurmaFinTech, pointed to a dilemma. If payrolls come in strong, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October would rise, pushing borrowing costs higher for companies and households. If the report is weak and hiring clearly slows, market concern could shift toward stagflation.
The report added that these macro variables are also seen as affecting pressure on Bitcoin.