U.S. President Donald Trump said on Jan. 30 that he wants to handle the budget standoff through bipartisan cooperation and avoid a partial federal government shutdown. The political message was softer, but prediction traders did not fully buy it: Polymarket data showed a 76% chance of a shutdown this Saturday.
Trump shifts tone in Cabinet meeting
Speaking during a White House Cabinet meeting, Trump said he believes Democrats also do not want a shutdown and that both parties should work together to prevent one. The comment was widely read as a tactical shift by the White House. It stood in contrast to the harder line seen last autumn, when a funding fight led to a shutdown that lasted 43 days.
Funding deadline set for midnight on Jan. 30
Several federal agencies are facing a funding deadline at midnight on Jan. 30. If Congress fails to pass the necessary appropriations bills in time, a partial shutdown would begin on Jan. 31. Non-essential operations at the Department of Homeland Security, the State Department, and the Department of Health and Human Services could be affected.
If that happens, pay for hundreds of thousands of federal workers, some public services, and national park operations would face disruption. The Department of Agriculture and the Department of Veterans Affairs are not part of the affected group because they already received full-year funding.
DHS and ICE funding remain the main sticking points
The central dispute in the current budget fight is funding for the Department of Homeland Security and its agency, Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE. Democratic lawmakers oppose folding DHS into a broader appropriations package after two recent shootings of U.S. citizens by federal law enforcement officers in Minnesota drew heavy public attention.
Democrats are seeking tighter limits and oversight for ICE operations, including mandatory body cameras and stronger accountability measures. Without those changes, they have signaled they will not support the funding bill.
Market pricing still shows deep skepticism
Negotiations have produced a more constructive public tone, and concern about a shutdown has eased from earlier levels. The market signal is still blunt. With Polymarket holding shutdown odds at 76%, traders are showing little confidence that Congress and the White House can close the gap before the deadline.