On March 14, U.S. President Donald Trump claimed to have launched “the most powerful bombing raids in Middle East history” on Iran's Kharg Island, the nation's main crude oil export terminal. Trump said restraint remained an option but signaled willingness to escalate if strategic waterways were further threatened. Iran warned it would retaliate against U.S.-linked facilities in the region if energy infrastructure was hit. Oil prices swung, yet bitcoin's reaction was muted compared to earlier shocks in the conflict.
Bitcoin Posts 4.2% Weekly Gain, Strongest Since September 2025
Bitcoin slid 3.5% from its Friday high of $73,838 immediately after the strikes, but the weekly candle still showed a 4.2% advance — its best seven-day rally in seven months. The pattern suggests market participants are growing accustomed to Middle East headlines, with large-scale panic selling gradually fading.
The $73,000–$74,000 range again proved a tough resistance zone, with four failed breakout attempts over two weeks. On-chain data reveals nearly $1.9 billion in leveraged long bets clustered above $75,000 and an estimated $2 billion in sell pressure as price approaches the $76,000–$80,000 corridor.
A notable shift emerged on U.S.-based exchanges: the Coinbase premium indicator turned positive for the first time in roughly ten weeks, reading 35.4 basis points. This reversal signals growing spot demand from domestic traders after persistent selling through Q1 2026.
ETF Inflows Hit $1.9B in Three Weeks; Strategy Adds 11,042 BTC
Institutional flows remain the bedrock of bitcoin's price stability. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $1.9 billion in net inflows over the last three weeks, with $1.34 billion in March alone. These products are on track for their first month of positive net flows since October 2025, reflecting robust shareholder demand.
Strategy, the largest corporate bitcoin holder, bought 11,042 BTC this week via its STRC-backed financing mechanism, adding to accumulation pressure. Total liquidations across the market reached $371 million in 24 hours, with shorts accounting for $207 million of that sum.
The recovery spread to major altcoins: Ethereum climbed 5.5% to $2,090; BNB rose to $655; Solana advanced to $88.
Fed Rate Decision Looms with 95% Probability of No Change
The Federal Reserve meets March 17-18. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a over 95% probability that rates will stay at 3.5%–3.75%. Traders will scrutinize updated economic projections and Chair Jerome Powell's remarks for any hints about the longer-term trajectory.