Donald Trump said on Truth Social that U.S. tariffs had cut the trade deficit by 78% and argued the country could post a surplus this year for the first time in decades. The claim landed just as markets were repricing tariff risk. Bitcoin dropped to an intraday low of $65,900 before recovering to around $67,000.
Monthly swing does not settle the annual picture
Reports cited by Investing.com said the U.S. was expected to record a monthly trade surplus of $55.5 billion, which would be the first monthly surplus since 1975. That headline, though, sits next to a much less dramatic full-year trend. U.S. Census Bureau data showed the November 2025 trade deficit widened to $56.8 billion, up from $29.2 billion in October. Exports fell to $292.1 billion, down $10.9 billion month over month, while imports rose to $348.9 billion, up $16.8 billion.
For all of 2025, the U.S. is still projected to run a trade deficit of more than $800 billion. That would be below the $1.2 trillion gap recorded in 2024, but it remains a deficit by a wide margin. Economists cited in the report said Trump’s 78% figure likely reflects short-term monthly volatility rather than a lasting annual shift.
“Liberation Day” tariffs changed sourcing, not dependence on imports
In April 2025, Trump announced broad tariffs on more than 100 countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 50%. He described the move as an economic independence declaration for the United States. A 90-day pause gave trading partners time to negotiate lower rates, but import patterns shifted quickly.
U.S. imports from China fell sharply. From January to November 2025, imports of Chinese goods dropped to $288 billion, compared with $401 billion in the same period of 2024. Government figures in the report also showed that lower imports from China were largely offset by higher imports from other Asian and European countries. Supply chains moved. Overall reliance on imports did not disappear.
Most tariff costs stayed inside the United States
A study from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that nearly 90% of tariff costs were borne by U.S. businesses and consumers. That runs against Trump’s repeated claim that foreign exporters would absorb the hit. The study said that during the first 11 months of 2025, most tariff-related costs were passed through to domestic consumers.
Foreign suppliers took on a somewhat larger share later in the year, but American firms and households still carried most of the burden. That makes the revenue argument around tariffs much harder to frame as a clean gain for the U.S.
Markets focused on inflation and rate expectations
Financial markets reacted quickly to the tariff narrative. Investors treated it as a sign that rates could stay higher for longer, adding pressure to risk assets. Bitcoin’s rebound after the drop showed that buyers did return, but the macro concern remained the same: whether long-running tariffs will keep inflation pressure elevated and delay Federal Reserve rate cuts.
The policy fight is also moving into Washington. The report said six House Republicans joined Democrats to pass a resolution reversing tariffs on Canada. With the U.S. moving toward the 2026 midterm elections, trade policy is still a live economic and political issue.