President Donald Trump claimed at a May 8 press conference that gasoline prices had fallen 'very significantly' that day, but data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) shows the national average for regular unleaded stood at $4.52 per gallon on May 10, directly contradicting his assertion. Since taking office in January 2025, pump prices have fluctuated from around $3.05-3.20 per gallon, dipping to a low of $2.81 in January 2026 before steadily climbing. The March monthly average was $3.64, April rose to about $4.10, and by early May prices exceeded $4.45-4.58 depending on the source. In the past week alone, the national average increased by about 25 cents. Compared to May 2025, when regular gasoline averaged $3.14-3.26 per gallon, drivers are now paying over $1.40 more at the pump.
Core Cause: U.S.-Iran Conflict and Strait of Hormuz Disruption
The primary driver is the ongoing military conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Operations near the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted an estimated 20% of global oil supply flows. Brent crude oil prices have broken above $100 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades at $94-95. Since crude oil typically accounts for 50-60% of what consumers pay at the pump, these wholesale levels directly impact retail prices.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has forecast that Brent could rise to nearly $115 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026 before declining, depending on conflict resolution. The spread between Brent and WTI has widened to $5-12 per barrel due to higher transportation costs and disrupted supply routes.
Trump’s Optimistic Statements and Historical Context
Trump has repeatedly told Americans that prices will 'collapse' once hostilities end and pointed to abundant global oil supply as a buffer. He has even set post-conflict goals as low as $2 per gallon. These claims are speculative and hinge on how quickly the Strait of Hormuz disruptions are resolved. Presidents have limited influence over short-term retail gasoline prices, which are determined by crude markets, refining margins, taxes, and distribution costs. The Trump administration has deployed the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and Jones Act waivers to ease pressure, but results have been mixed.
The 2026 price trajectory mirrors the spike under the Biden administration in 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine war helped push the national average above $5 per gallon. Wars typically put pressure on energy markets. Prices stabilized during 2023-2025 before the current geopolitical shock reversed that trend. AAA’s data shows no weekly decline during the period Trump referenced. Month-over-month, prices rose about 40 cents. Year-over-year, they are up over $1.40. EIA’s weekly gasoline retail reports confirm these figures.
Trump has taken credit for the decline from Biden-era highs, which did occur during the first year of his second term. But current data does not support the claim that prices fell 'significantly' or otherwise this week. Retail prices typically follow crude prices with a 1-4 week lag, and historically rise faster than they fall—a dynamic sometimes called 'rockets and feathers.' If the conflict calms and crude declines from current levels, consumers could see relief in weeks, not days.