On May 8, 2026, President Donald Trump told reporters during a press conference that gasoline prices had fallen 'very substantially' that day and were 'way down' compared to earlier levels. However, data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) tells a different story: the national average price for regular unleaded gasoline stood at $4.52 per gallon on May 10, a mere one-cent decline from the previous day—far from any 'substantial' drop.
Data vs. Rhetoric: Prices Are Rising, Not Falling
According to AAA, the national average was between $3.05 and $3.20 per gallon when Trump took office in January 2025. Prices then dipped to a low of roughly $2.81 in January 2026 before reversing course. By March 2026, the monthly average had climbed to $3.64; in April, it reached $4.10; and in early May, prices topped $4.45 to $4.58, depending on the source. In the last week alone, the national average increased by approximately 25 cents. Compared to May 2025, when the average was $3.14 to $3.26, drivers are now paying over $1.40 more per gallon at the pump.
Geopolitical Conflict Drives Oil Prices
The primary catalyst for the surge is the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, with military operations near the Strait of Hormuz disrupting an estimated 20% of global oil supply. Brent crude has surged above $100 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades between $94 and $95. Since crude oil typically accounts for 50% to 60% of retail gasoline prices, these wholesale increases directly impact consumers.
Presidential Promises vs. Market Realities
Trump has repeatedly assured Americans that once hostilities end, gas prices will 'plummet' to as low as $2 per gallon, citing abundant global oil reserves. However, presidents have limited control over short-term retail prices, which are determined by crude markets, refinery margins, taxes, and distribution costs. The administration has tapped the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and waived the Jones Act to ease pressure, but with mixed results.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that Brent could peak around $115 per barrel in Q2 2026 before declining if tensions ease. The spread between Brent and WTI has widened to $5–12 per barrel due to elevated shipping costs and disrupted supply routes.
Historical Trends and Outlook
The current price trajectory mirrors the 2022 spike under the Biden administration, when the Russian invasion of Ukraine pushed the national average above $5 per gallon. Prices stabilized between 2023 and 2025 before the latest geopolitical shock reversed the trend. Retail prices typically follow crude with a lag of one to four weeks, and historically, they rise faster than they fall—a phenomenon known as 'rockets and feathers.' If the Strait of Hormuz conflict de-escalates, consumers may see relief within weeks, not days.
In summary, Trump's claim of a 'substantial' weekly decline is not supported by the data. AAA and EIA reports show that prices have increased on a weekly, monthly, and yearly basis. The president's optimistic statements remain contingent on an eventual resolution of the conflict, with no evidence of immediate relief at the pump.