U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters during a press conference on May 8 that gasoline prices had 'come down very substantially' and were 'way lower' than before. However, data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) paints a starkly different picture: the national average price for regular unleaded gasoline hit $4.52 per gallon on May 10, 2026, the highest level recorded so far this year.
A Clear Disconnect Between Rhetoric and Reality
Since Trump took office in January 2025, gasoline prices have followed a volatile trajectory. At his inauguration, the average stood at around $3.05–$3.20 per gallon. By late 2025 and early 2026, prices had fallen to a low of about $2.81 in January. But the trend reversed sharply in March 2026: the monthly average rose to $3.64 in March, $4.10 in April, and by early May it had surged into the $4.45–$4.58 range. In the final week alone, the national average climbed by approximately 25 cents. Compared to the same period in 2025 (when the average was between $3.14 and $3.26), drivers are now paying more than $1.40 extra per gallon—an increase of roughly 44%.
AAA data shows that on the very day Trump made his 'substantial decline' claim (May 8), prices were not falling at all. Instead, they remained elevated before a marginal 1-cent drop the following day—far from any meaningful decrease. These numbers are corroborated by the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly retail gasoline reports.
Geopolitical Turmoil as the Key Driver
The primary factor behind the surge is the ongoing U.S.-Iran military conflict. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted approximately 20% of global oil supplies. Brent crude has surpassed $100 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading at $94–$95. Crude oil typically accounts for 50%–60% of the retail pump price, so the impact on consumers is direct and severe.
The EIA forecasts that Brent could peak at around $115 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026, assuming the conflict continues. The spread between Brent and WTI has widened to $5–$12 per barrel due to elevated shipping costs and disrupted supply routes, adding further pressure on retail margins.
Trump has repeatedly promised that gasoline prices will 'plummet' once the conflict ends, even suggesting they could fall as low as $2 per gallon. However, these projections remain speculative and hinge entirely on the resolution of the Strait of Hormuz crisis—a scenario with no clear timeline.
Limited Presidential Power Over Pump Prices
U.S. presidents have limited influence over short-term retail gasoline prices. What consumers pay is determined by global crude markets, refinery margins, taxes, and distribution costs. The Trump administration has used tools such as releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and Jones Act waivers, but with mixed results. The current price trajectory mirrors the sharp spike seen during the Biden administration in 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed the national average above $5 per gallon.
Historically, retail gasoline prices follow crude oil with a lag of one to four weeks, and they tend to rise faster than they fall—a phenomenon known as 'rockets and feathers.' If geopolitical tensions ease and crude retreats from current levels, consumers may see relief in weeks, not days. Until then, the gap between the president’s claims and on-the-ground reality remains wide.