U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters this week that gasoline prices have fallen “very substantially” and are “way down,” but data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) tells a starkly different story. As of May 10, 2026, the national average price for regular unleaded gasoline stood at $4.52 per gallon, the highest level of the year so far.
Fact Check: Trump vs. Reality
Trump made his assertion during a press conference when asked about the White House’s Middle East strategy amid pump prices exceeding $4.50 per gallon. He responded by saying that prices had fallen “very substantially” that very day and were “much lower.” However, AAA data shows prices remained elevated before dropping by just 1 cent — far from any meaningful decline. Over the past week alone, the national average climbed roughly 25 cents.
Context matters. At Trump’s inauguration in January 2025, the average price was between $3.05 and $3.20 per gallon. By late 2025 and early 2026, prices dipped to a low of around $2.81 in January 2026. Since then, the trend has been relentlessly upward. In March 2026, the monthly average was $3.64; in April, it rose to about $4.10. By early May, prices had broken through the $4.45–$4.58 range, depending on the source. Compared to May 2025 — when regular gas cost between $3.14 and $3.26 per gallon — drivers are now paying more than $1.40 extra at the pump.
Geopolitical Turmoil Fuels the Spike
The main reason for the surge is the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. Military operations linked to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted roughly 20% of global oil supplies. Brent crude has surged above $100 per barrel, while WTI trades between $94 and $95. Since crude oil typically accounts for 50% to 60% of what consumers pay at the pump, these higher crude prices directly translate into higher retail prices.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that Brent could peak around $115 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026 before declining, provided the conflict is resolved. The spread between Brent and WTI has widened to $5–$12 per barrel due to elevated transport costs and disruptions in delivery routes.
Promises and Historical Echoes
Throughout the conflict, Trump has made forward-looking promises. He has repeatedly assured Americans that prices will “plunge rapidly” once hostilities end, citing abundant global oil supplies as a backstop. He has even mentioned post-conflict prices as low as $2 per gallon. These claims remain speculative, hinging on how quickly the Strait of Hormuz disruptions clear. Historically, retail prices follow crude with a lag of one to four weeks, and they tend to rise faster than they fall — a dynamic sometimes called “rockets and feathers.”
Presidents have limited influence over short-term retail gasoline prices. What consumers pay is determined by oil markets, refining margins, taxes and distribution costs. The Trump administration has used Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases and Jones Act waivers to try to ease pressure, with mixed results. The price trajectory in 2026 echoes the sharp run-up of 2022 under Biden, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed the national average above $5 per gallon. Wars typically stress energy markets. Prices stabilized in 2023–2025 before the current geopolitical shock reversed the trend.
AAA data shows no week-over-week decline during the period Trump referenced. On a monthly basis, prices rose roughly 40 cents; year-over-year, they are up more than $1.40. Weekly EIA retail gasoline reports confirm this. All publicly available data contradicts the president’s optimistic characterization.