During a press conference on May 8, President Donald Trump told reporters that gasoline prices had dropped 'very substantially' and were 'way down.' However, data from AAA and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) paint a starkly different picture: as of May 10, 2026, the national average for regular unleaded gasoline stood at $4.52 per gallon, contradicting any notion of a significant decline.
Trump's Claims vs. Reality
When questioned about Middle East strategy amid pump prices exceeding $4.50, Trump responded that gasoline prices had fallen 'very substantial' that very day. Yet AAA's daily tracking shows the price dipped merely one cent from the previous day—hardly a notable drop. A broader timeline reveals an unmistakable uptrend: at Trump's inauguration in January 2025, the average was $3.05–$3.20. By late 2025 and early 2026, prices dipped to a low of around $2.81 in January 2026. Since then, the trajectory has been firmly upward. The March 2026 monthly average was $3.64; April rose to ~$4.10; and early May saw prices climb to $4.45–$4.58. Over the past week alone, the national average increased by about 25 cents. Compared to May 2025, when the average ranged from $3.14 to $3.26, drivers are now paying more than $1.40 extra per gallon.
Trump has repeatedly promised that prices would 'collapse' after hostilities ended, even suggesting a $2-per-gallon target. These claims remain speculative and hinge on a rapid resolution of the Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
Root Cause: US-Iran Conflict and Oil Supply Disruption
The primary driver of rising pump prices is the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran. Military actions related to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted roughly 20% of global oil supply. Brent crude has surged above $100 per barrel, while WTI trades around $94–$95. Crude oil typically accounts for 50-60% of what consumers pay at the pump, creating a direct pass-through to retail prices.
The EIA forecasts Brent could peak at around $115 per barrel in Q2 2026 before potentially easing if the conflict is resolved. The spread between Brent and WTI has widened to $5–$12 per barrel due to elevated transportation costs and supply route disruptions.
Historical Echoes and Future Outlook
The 2026 price trajectory mirrors the sharp rise of 2022 under the Biden administration, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine pushed the national average above $5 per gallon. Wars typically exert pressure on energy markets. The EIA's weekly retail gasoline reports confirm no weekly decline during the period Trump referenced. Month-over-month, prices rose about 40 cents; year-over-year, they increased by over $1.40.
Presidents have limited influence over short-term retail gasoline prices, which are determined by crude markets, refining margins, taxes, and distribution costs. The Trump administration has used Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases and Jones Act waivers to ease pressure, with mixed results. Retail prices typically follow crude with a one-to-four-week lag, and prices historically rise faster than they fall—a dynamic sometimes called 'rockets and feathers.' If the conflict de-escalates and crude prices drop, consumers may feel relief in weeks, not days.
In sum, Trump's assertion of a significant drop in gas prices is not supported by the data. With ongoing geopolitical tensions and disrupted supply, American drivers face sustained high costs at the pump for the foreseeable future.