Just days after an assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump during a rally in Pennsylvania, prediction market Polymarket shows his odds of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election have risen to 71%, up from 68% immediately after the incident and from around 60% before the event.
Polymarket Odds: Trump 71%, Biden 17%, Harris 6%
As of July 15, 2024, the “Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?” contract on Polymarket values Trump’s chances at 71%, compared to 17% for incumbent Joe Biden and 6% for Vice President Kamala Harris. The total amount wagered on this market has ballooned to $258 million, making it one of the largest political prediction markets in history.
Other candidates on Polymarket include an unspecified “Democratic politician” at 2%, Michelle Obama at 2%, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 1%. On PredictIt.org, Trump commands 67%, Biden 25%, Harris 12%, California Governor Gavin Newsom 5%, and RFK Jr. 2%.
Market Reaction to the Assassination Attempt
The assassination attempt on July 13 immediately shifted market sentiment. Initially, Trump’s odds jumped from ~60% to 68% within hours, and they continued to climb over the following days as the narrative of his resilience strengthened. The sharp movement highlights how prediction markets can rapidly incorporate breaking news and emotional responses into price discovery.
Intriguing side markets have also appeared on Polymarket: the contract for “Secret Service Director fired this year” now has a 29% probability, while the market for “Assassination attempt shooter was a lone wolf” stands at a decisive 95%, indicating near-unanimous belief that the attacker acted alone without a broader conspiracy.
Prediction Markets vs. Traditional Polls
Traditional polls often take days or weeks to reflect the impact of a major event like an assassination attempt. In contrast, prediction markets operate 24/7 and aggregate participant knowledge through real money bets. Critics argue these markets can be influenced by a small number of wealthy traders and may not accurately represent the broader electorate. However, the high liquidity and the willingness of thousands of participants to put capital at risk make these numbers a compelling real-time gauge of political sentiment.
With the election still months away, the current 71% odds for Trump represent a significant shift but are not immutable. Another unexpected event—such as a major policy gaffe, indictment, or economic shock—could quickly rearrange the probabilities. For now, the market has placed its bet on a Trump comeback, but the final verdict rests with voters in November.
This article is based on publicly available market data and should not be construed as investment advice. Prediction market outcomes do not guarantee actual election results.