On July 8, during the NATO summit in Ankara, Donald Trump stated that reaching a permanent agreement with Iran was not possible, and therefore the deal was no longer valid. The announcement hit global markets instantly: U.S. crude oil broke above $75 for the first time since June 22, while Bitcoin slid from above $64,000 to below $62,000.
Oil Breaks $75 as Bitcoin Faces Pressure
Oil prices had recently traded below $67.50 on hopes that tensions might ease. Trump's remarks reversed those expectations, forcing markets to reprice supply disruption risks. U.S. crude futures surged sharply, clearing the $75 level. On the other side, Bitcoin lost ground as investors cut exposure to riskier assets. Technically, traders are watching the daily close: if it stays below $62,000, a retreat toward the $60,000 level gains traction.
Caution dominates as geopolitical uncertainty rises, with high-risk assets like Bitcoin bearing the brunt. The market had been betting on de-escalation, but Trump's sudden statement upended that narrative, triggering capital outflows from risk assets.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard Claims Strikes on U.S. Bases
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed that it targeted U.S. military positions in Bahrain and Kuwait in response to American attacks. Named sites include an air base in Bahrain hosting U.S. forces and facilities in Kuwait. The Guard described the strikes as direct retaliation for U.S. "acts of aggression."
Earlier, the U.S. launched strikes against Iran and reinstated sanctions on Iranian oil exports, citing attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global energy transport, handles roughly one-fifth of the world's oil shipments. Any military tension there directly impacts energy prices. While the U.S. has not confirmed specific damage, the incidents heighten fears of a widening regional conflict.
Trump Rules Out Renewed Talks with Tehran
During the Ankara statement, Trump expressed unwillingness to start a new peace process after previous negotiations failed. This stance further dims the outlook for a diplomatic solution. Markets showed a clear divergence: oil strengthened on supply security concerns, while Bitcoin weakened as risk appetite faded.
Looking ahead, further military developments and official statements from Washington and Tehran will be key drivers of market sentiment. If the conflict escalates, oil could climb further, while risk assets like Bitcoin face additional downside. Short-term traders should keep a close eye on geopolitical newsflows for volatility triggers.