Former U.S. President Donald Trump recently announced that his “Trump Gold Card” investment immigration program has achieved $1.3 billion in sales, describing the initiative as “booming.” However, decentralized prediction market Polymarket has quickly challenged the credibility of these figures, emphasizing that only finalized approvals with completed payments should be considered valid sales.
The Dispute Over Data
Trump's statement on December 19, along with a supporting claim by financier Howard Lutnick, reportedly do not meet Polymarket's criteria for valid sales. The prediction market insists that without documented final approvals and full payments, the $1.3 billion figure lacks substance. Polymarket's own data indicates that the probability of the Gold Card achieving zero sales for the year remains at 89%, underscoring widespread skepticism about the program's actual market performance.
Gold Card Program Overview
The Trump Gold Card is an investment immigration scheme requiring a fee of $1 million plus a $15,000 processing charge. It promises U.S. residency and investment pathways in return. Critics have questioned its high cost and lack of transparency compared to existing EB-5 programs. If the 89% probability of zero sales holds, it would represent a major setback for Trump's commercial ventures and could impact his political fundraising.
Market Reaction and Interpretation
Following Polymarket's challenge, its native token POLY dropped 3.83%, reflecting market sensitivity to the controversy. Crypto and prediction market communities widely debated the issue, with many viewing Trump's announcement as more promotional than factual. Analysts note that while Polymarket's odds are not official audits, they offer a valuable third-party perspective in the absence of verified sales records. As of press time, the Trump team has not formally responded to Polymarket's doubts. Whether the Gold Card can achieve any sales in 2025 remains to be seen.