Bitcoin whipsawed around the $63,000 mark in Foresight’s Aug. 3 evening market report after remarks from Donald Trump briefly lifted prices and a denial from Iran erased the move within hours.
According to the report, Trump said earlier in the day that the U.S. and Iran would hold talks on Aug. 3 and that there was already an agreement tied to the Strait of Hormuz. BTC climbed to as high as $63,700 before Iranian officials rejected the claim. Bitcoin then dropped back to around $62,200 and was later moving below $63,000.
Foresight placed BTC near $62,500-$63,000 at the time covered by the article. ETH was quoted around $1,850-$1,870 and had not regained the $1,900 level, while SOL traded near $72-$73 after falling below $73.
Trump comments spark rally, Iranian denial reverses it
The report said Trump announced on Aug. 1 that he had canceled a previously planned large-scale strike on Iran. He also said the parties had reached a preliminary framework agreement under which the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened “immediately, fully, and completely,” and the Iranian nuclear threat would be eliminated. In Trump’s account, U.S.-Iran talks were due to begin on Monday afternoon, Aug. 3.
Iran pushed back directly. Foresight said a military official described Trump’s remarks as “a new lie” and said Iranian forces remained at the highest level of alert. Iran’s Fars News Agency, citing sources, said the plan to reopen the strait was “pure rumor” and that no agreement had been reached.
Oil prices moved sharply with the headlines. Brent crude fell as much as 7.3% in early trading to $81.55 a barrel, and WTI dipped below $80. By the time the report was filed, Brent was back at $83-$84 a barrel and WTI was trading around $80.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs post weekly net outflow
Foresight identified ETF flows as the second major driver of the day’s market action. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $61.53 million net outflow last week, ending a run of three consecutive weeks of inflows.
Within that total, Fidelity’s FBTC saw $85.18 million in outflows over the week, while BlackRock’s IBIT brought in $86.90 million, offsetting part of the broader pullback.
Spot Ether ETFs moved the other way. The report said they posted a $27.4 million net inflow last week, marking a fourth straight week of positive flows. Foresight described the pattern as money rotating from BTC into ETH, in line with the previous week’s setup.
It also cited a Glassnode report saying spot demand for Bitcoin remained weak, even as long-term holders continued to show resilience.
U.S. stocks open higher, chip shares stay weak
The third factor highlighted in the report was the U.S. equity market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened up more than 1%, the Nasdaq rose about 1.2%, and the S&P 500 gained roughly 0.9%.
The internal split was pronounced. Amazon jumped more than 5% to a record high, Microsoft rose more than 5%, Alphabet gained more than 4%, and Meta advanced more than 6%. Semiconductor names, however, stayed under pressure. Seagate fell more than 7%, Western Digital lost more than 6%, SK Hynix dropped more than 5%, and Micron was down more than 4%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was off about 2.9%.
Foresight’s read was that Bitcoin was failing to follow the strength in broader equities while still reacting to weakness.
Macro calendar and technical levels in focus
The report said market attention was shifting this week toward five key U.S. economic releases and a batch of corporate earnings. Nonfarm payrolls were described as the biggest variable.
On the technical side, BTC remained below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages at $64,676, $67,205, and $73,001. Foresight said the daily chart still reflected a weak range-bound structure, with rebounds lacking follow-through. On the 4-hour chart, MACD was showing signs of a bullish crossover below the zero line, while RSI sat in a neutral 45-50 range. The report said stabilization around $63,000 on lighter volume would be an important signal to watch.
In spot trading, buy orders below $63,000 were described as relatively solid, while selling pressure was said to be easing at the margin. Still, a Gate analyst warned in the article that the market remained under pressure and that small rebounds lacked volume support, cautioning against blind dip-buying.
Three things the market is watching next
- Whether U.S.-Iran talks actually begin. Foresight said Trump claimed talks would start in the afternoon, while Iran said there was no such plan. If Iran confirms talks, BTC could stage another push higher; if denials continue, $62,200 may come under renewed pressure.
- Whether $62,200 holds. The day’s low was listed at $62,268. If $62,200 breaks, the next level cited in the report is $61,500, followed by $60,000.
- This week’s nonfarm payrolls and inflation data. Foresight said any reading that comes in above expectations could trigger sharp volatility.
The article’s own judgment was that downside odds were slightly higher, based on what it described as three overlapping pressures: geopolitical headlines failing to sustain gains, ETF money leaving BTC products, and a market structure still under technical strain.