U.S. President Donald Trump said on March 10 that the war with Iran is “about over,” sharply cooling geopolitical risk sentiment. Bitcoin rebounded over 4% from its war-panic low of $63,000, briefly touching the $70,000 mark. At press time, BTC was trading around $69,960, up more than $1,400 in 24 hours, bringing its market cap back to approximately $1.33 trillion. ETH, SOL, and XRP also rallied 3%-5%, while smaller altcoins like HYPE, ZEC, and RENDER surged 7%-11%.
Polymarket Bets on War Ending by March 31 Jump to 44%
Prediction market Polymarket priced in the shifting odds: the probability of the war ending by March 31 soared from 11% to 44%; by April 30 it stood at 73%, and by June 30 at 82%. The rebound comes after a dramatic sell-off on February 28, when the U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran erased about $12.8 billion in crypto market value within hours, sending BTC to $63,000 — nearly a 10% drop. Over the following two weeks, BTC consolidated between $66,600 and $70,000, with $66,600 serving as a key support level for bulls.
$12.8B Wipeout to 4% Bounce: Geopolitical Discount Repair
Trump’s statement relieved the pressure in that consolidation range. However, the current rally remains a repair of the geopolitical discount rather than the start of a new impulsive leg. The daily RSI stands at 47.25, firmly neutral — neither overbought nor showing clear oversold momentum. The 5-day moving average sits at $69,959, slightly below the spot price, while the 50-day MA is at $67,931. The short- and medium-term MA structure is mildly bullish but lacks strong thrust.
$74K Is the Real Hurdle
The key resistance is $74,000. Before the war broke out in late February, that level was a major support; once lost, it flipped into resistance, and it remains the core target bulls must reclaim. If BTC can hold above $70,000 and break out on volume, the next test zone is around $74,000. Conversely, if Trump’s words are not followed by tangible ceasefire progress, market sentiment could reverse quickly, putting the $66,600 war low back into play as the last defense for bulls.
Brent crude has fallen below $100 per barrel, which typically helps lower inflation expectations and indirectly supports risk assets. Later today (21:30 Taipei time), the U.S. February CPI data is due, with a consensus estimate of 2.5% year-on-year. A print at or below expectations could provide additional fuel for the bounce; a surprise upside in inflation could dampen hopes for Fed rate cuts.