U.S. Vice President JD Vance is set to take on the most critical task of his political career: leading peace talks to end the war with Iran. White House officials say Vance's longstanding opposition to endless overseas conflicts makes him a more acceptable interlocutor for Tehran than previous envoys. But the administration has also warned that if diplomacy fails, the U.S. is preparing for a significant military escalation.
Trump Formally Names Vance as Lead Negotiator
According to AXIOS, President Trump formalized Vance's role during a cabinet meeting on Thursday, tasking him with reporting on the latest developments in Iran and confirming that Vance is working with former envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner. Vance has held multiple calls with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, met with Gulf allies, and even participated in indirect communications with Iran.
A senior administration official stated bluntly: "If they can't make a deal with Vance, they can't make a deal with anyone. He is the best they are going to get." Trump has extended the deadline for negotiations, and mediators from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey are still trying to organize face-to-face talks. If a summit materializes, Vance could sit across from Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
Vance Skeptical of Israel's Optimism; Smear Campaign Alleged
Behind the scenes, tensions simmer between the U.S. and Israel. Sources from both countries say Vance is deeply skeptical of Israel's overly optimistic pre-war assessments, especially regarding the possibility of toppling the Iranian regime. In a call with Netanyahu, Vance reportedly called out several predictions as too rosy. Soon after, a right-wing Israeli media outlet falsely reported that Vance had shouted at Netanyahu. Vance's advisers suspect that some Israeli figures, seeing Vance as "not hawkish enough," are trying to weaken his influence through disinformation; Israeli officials have denied orchestrating the story.
Military Escalation on the Table if Talks Collapse
Although Vance was one of the few internal skeptics before the war, questioning its duration, objectives, and impact on U.S. ammunition stockpiles, he has advocated for overwhelming force to achieve a swift victory once Trump decided to engage. U.S. officials stress that while the White House has signaled its sincerity by putting Vance in charge, it is also actively planning for major military escalation if diplomacy falters. Sources close to Vance say he will strictly follow Trump's directives to deliver the outcome the president wants.