Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC, TSM) is set to report third-quarter 2026 results on Thursday, Oct. 15, with its earnings call scheduled for 2:00 p.m. in Taiwan, or 2:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time. Because the company has already disclosed monthly revenue figures, the central issue is no longer whether sales met guidance. Attention has shifted to margins, fourth-quarter outlook and capital spending.
Earnings call timing and blackout period
TSMC will hold its third-quarter 2026 earnings call on Oct. 15. The company’s pre-earnings blackout period runs from Oct. 5 through Oct. 14.
- Taiwan / Beijing / Singapore: Oct. 15, 14:00
- India (IST): Oct. 15, 11:30
- London (BST): Oct. 15, 07:00
- U.S. Eastern Time (ET): Oct. 15, 02:00
- U.S. Pacific Time (PT): Oct. 14, 23:00
The call comes after the Taiwan stock market closes at 1:30 p.m. local time and before regular U.S. stock trading begins. That means both TSMC’s Taiwan-listed shares and its U.S.-listed ADRs will only reflect the earnings release in the next available trading session.
What TSMC guided for in the third quarter
In its second-quarter 2026 earnings release, TSMC gave the following guidance for the third quarter:
- Revenue of $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion, based on an assumed exchange rate of NT$32.0 to $1
- Gross margin of 65.0% to 67.0%, below the second quarter’s 67.7%
- Operating margin of 56.0% to 58.0%, below the second quarter’s 60.3%
Management had already signaled that profitability would ease as the 2-nanometer ramp accelerated and added cost pressure. CFO Wendell Huang said on the second-quarter earnings call that 2nm would dilute gross margin by about 3 to 4 percentage points in the second half of the year.
Monthly revenue has already answered the sales question
TSMC reported September revenue of NT$511.86 billion, down 0.6% from August and up 54.6% from a year earlier. Adding July, August and September together puts third-quarter revenue at NT$1.49424 trillion, up 50.9% year over year and 17.6% above the second quarter’s NT$1.27038 trillion.
Using the NT$32.0 exchange rate embedded in the company’s guidance, third-quarter revenue comes to about $46.7 billion. That is roughly $900 million above the top end of TSMC’s guided range.
As a result, the real debate around the Oct. 15 report is no longer revenue. It is whether profitability held up and how management frames demand going into the next quarter.
What would count as better than expected
Several data points are likely to shape how investors read the report.
Gross margin
A number above 67.0% would suggest TSMC is absorbing 2nm ramp costs better than previously expected. A result within the 65.0% to 67.0% range would be in line with guidance. Anything below 65.0% would point to heavier margin dilution.
Fourth-quarter revenue guidance
With third-quarter revenue already tracking near $46.7 billion, that level becomes the new comparison point. If the midpoint of fourth-quarter guidance comes in above it, the market is likely to read that as a sign AI demand is still strengthening into year-end.
Net profit
Reuters reported on Oct. 8 that LSEG analysts expect TSMC’s third-quarter net profit to rise 64% from a year earlier to NT$740.8 billion.
Capital expenditure
According to the second-quarter earnings call transcript, TSMC raised its 2026 capital expenditure budget in July from $52 billion-$56 billion to $60 billion-$64 billion. Any sign that spending is moving closer to the top end of that range, or any early comment on 2027 investment plans, is likely to be treated as an important signal on AI demand.
Full-year growth
On the same earnings call, management said 2026 revenue in U.S. dollar terms was expected to grow by slightly more than 40%. Through the first nine months, TSMC’s revenue in New Taiwan dollars was already up 41.1% from a year earlier, leaving room for a higher full-year view.
Why this report matters for AI stocks
The earnings release arrives just days after concern about financing capacity for AI infrastructure hit chip and optical networking shares. Lumentum and Ciena each dropped about 10% on Oct. 12.
TSMC was not spared. TSM ADR closed at $444.35 on Oct. 12, down 1.98% and falling for a third straight trading day.
High-performance computing accounted for 66% of TSMC’s second-quarter revenue. On the July earnings call, Chief Executive Officer C.C. Wei said advanced packaging capacity was extremely tight and had already constrained customer growth.
That makes TSMC’s comments on AI demand, advanced packaging capacity and capital expenditure relevant well beyond its own stock. Investors are likely to use those remarks to gauge the outlook for Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom, and to judge whether the week’s selloff tied to AI financing worries has support in fundamentals.
MEXC perpetual contract snapshot before the report
MEXC’s TSM/USDT perpetual contract trades around the clock, including during periods when both Taiwan and U.S. equity markets are closed. The following market snapshot was recorded at 14:19 Beijing time on Oct. 13, 2026, or 2:19 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time:
- Last price: $441.10, about 0.73% below the Oct. 12 close of $444.35
- 24-hour range: $440.83 to $460.15; the high was recorded before the U.S. stock market opened on Oct. 12, and the low came during the Asian session on Oct. 13
- Funding rate: +0.0010%, near zero, suggesting no clear one-sided positioning ahead of the earnings call
At the time of the snapshot, the contract was trading near the bottom of its 24-hour range and about 4% below the pre-U.S.-open high. That mirrored the pressure seen in AI hardware names on Oct. 12 and showed the selling carrying into Asian hours.
Even so, round-the-clock trading does not mean perpetual futures fully replicate spot equity price discovery at all hours. After the earnings call, if U.S. equities are still not trading, the contract price may diverge from where TSM later opens on the New York Stock Exchange.
The main questions going into Oct. 15
The setup around this report comes down to three issues: whether margins stay resilient during the 2nm production ramp, how strong fourth-quarter guidance looks, and whether capital spending keeps climbing.
Revenue has already cleared the original target range based on monthly disclosures. That leaves the market focused on earnings quality and on how management describes demand tied to AI customers.
Frequently asked questions
When will TSMC report third-quarter 2026 earnings?
TSMC will hold its third-quarter earnings call at 2:00 p.m. Taiwan time on Thursday, Oct. 15, 2026. That corresponds to 2:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time on Oct. 15 and 11:00 p.m. U.S. Pacific Time on Oct. 14.
What was TSMC’s third-quarter revenue guidance?
The company originally guided for third-quarter revenue of $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion. Based on monthly revenue already disclosed and converted at the guidance exchange rate, third-quarter revenue is about $46.7 billion, above the top end of that range.
What gross margin is expected for the third quarter?
TSMC guided for third-quarter gross margin of 65.0% to 67.0%, down from 67.7% in the second quarter, mainly because of dilution from the 2nm production ramp. A figure above 67.0% would be viewed as ahead of company guidance.
Why could this report affect Nvidia and other AI stocks?
TSMC manufactures most leading AI chips, so its fourth-quarter guidance and capex plans are treated by the market as an important signal on AI demand for companies including Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom, especially after the Oct. 12 selloff in AI hardware shares.
