In February, research firm Citrini released 'The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis,' sparking a sell-off in US software stocks. The Dow dropped over 800 points, IBM saw its largest single-day decline of 2025, American Express and Blackstone fell over 8%, and hundreds of billions in market cap evaporated overnight. In April, analyst Analyst#3 traveled to the Strait of Hormuz and published a field report revealing Iran's 'toll booth' model and the counterintuitive conclusion that shipping volumes would rise. More recently, semiconductor analyst Jukan correctly identified copper foil's critical role in AI and semiconductors, igniting a new investment wave.
Founder's Unconventional Path
Behind Citrini stands 33-year-old James van Geelen, holding dual degrees in Biology and Psychology from UCLA. He worked as an emergency medical technician, founded a healthcare company and sold it to a private equity fund, and co-founded one of Connecticut's first medical marijuana dispensaries. In 2018, he started investing under Citrinitas Capital, catching early AI plays like Nvidia and GLP-1 weight-loss drugs like Ozempic/Wegovy. In December 2025, Citrini raised approximately $5.05 million in seed funding from about 10 employees.
Geelen calls himself a 'talented musician,' but he is better known for his 'second-order thinking' investment philosophy. In March 2023, during the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, he bought overnight financing rate call options and netted nearly 50x returns. Before the US military action in Venezuela in December last year, he shared views on Venezuelan sovereign bonds.
Triggering a Stock Panic: A 'Thought Experiment' Turns Real
The report co-authored with Alap Shah (from traditional finance) was framed as a 'thought experiment,' but its scenarios — mass white-collar unemployment, falling consumer spending, Ghost GDP — triggered genuine market fear. Delivery, payment, and software stocks plunged; DoorDash, Uber, Mastercard, Visa, and others fell 3%. Alap Shah later revealed a 'short bear, long bull' stance: shorting AI-disrupted firms while holding semiconductor stocks that benefit from AI. The report drew coverage from Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, and others.
Citrini's endorsement of the Hyperliquid ecosystem and Trade.xyz for pre-market price discovery also boosted the 'US stock RWA asset craze' this year, bringing crypto-native platforms deeper into traditional finance's awareness.
Investigating the Strait of Hormuz: On-the-Ground 'Toll Booth' Reality
On April 6, Analyst#3 visited the strategic chokepoint — the Strait of Hormuz — and published findings: Iran operates a 'toll booth' system with orderly passage; Iran does not want to close the strait; shipping volumes will gradually increase regardless of tensions. The report portrayed the conflict as a multi-player game, not simple confrontation, underscoring Citrini's strength in geopolitical research.
Geelen named the firm 'Citrinitas' after the alchemical stage in Soros's 'The Alchemy of Finance' — where lead begins turning into gold but hasn't fully transformed. This stage, he says, is his favorite: seeing gold being born before others notice the lead changing.
Investment Philosophy: Second-Order Thinking on Mega-Trends
Citrini focuses on long-term 'super trends': AI, robotics, energy demand, fiscal policy, geopolitics, modern warfare. Its Substack ranks consistently first in its category; the bio says, 'You will no longer need to ask, “What is a trade?”' The firm uses 'scenario hypotheses' to help readers understand second- and third-order effects. Geelen advises: 'Don't just think about what you think will happen. Think about what must happen. How will market reactions change reality? What cascading effects? Where will capital flow to overcome obstacles?'
This year, Citrini added macro analyst Nick Reece, Korean semiconductor analyst @jukan05, and AI chip analyst @zephyr_z9, filling gaps in technical details and industry trends. The firm retains a founder-driven + anonymous elite team model.
From healthcare entrepreneur to research 'deity,' Geelen's journey bridges crypto and traditional finance. Citrini's short-bear-long-bull strategy and deep-dive reports continue to reshape market narratives. With a small team of around 10, this research powerhouse may keep influencing global capital flows.