The U.S. crypto market structure bill known as the Clarity Act is losing momentum in Congress, and Satoshi Action Fund CEO Dennis Porter says its chances of passing are now about 50-50. The legislation is designed to give digital assets clearer rules in the United States and is widely viewed as one of the industry’s top policy priorities.
Ethics rules, BRCA language, and yield products are slowing the bill
In an interview, Porter said the current holdup comes from several unresolved disputes: ethics provisions, language tied to BRCA, crypto reward or yield products, and Democratic concerns over unfilled seats at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC. He said most of the serious negotiations are still happening behind closed doors, which leaves the public with little visibility into how close lawmakers are to a final compromise.
On crypto rewards, Porter does not expect Congress to impose a strict ban. At the same time, he said the final framework is unlikely to leave the area wide open, suggesting lawmakers are still trying to define how far those products should be allowed and what kind of guardrails would apply.
The Senate process remains the next major hurdle
Before the Clarity Act can become law, the Senate Banking Committee must hold hearings and approve the bill. Only then can it move to a full Senate vote. If the Senate and House versions do not match, lawmakers would still need to reconcile the differences in a conference committee before sending the legislation to the president.
Porter said the immediate question is timing: when the banking committee markup will happen, and when a floor vote might actually take place. That uncertainty has become one of the biggest factors hanging over the bill.
Midterm politics are shrinking the legislative window
Porter warned that the congressional calendar is tightening as the 2026 midterm elections get closer. In his view, the nearer Congress gets to the midterms, the less likely the bill is to make it through. The political calendar is not a side issue here. It is directly shaping how much room lawmakers have left to negotiate.
He also argued that party incentives could complicate talks. Porter said Republicans have no reason to blow up the market structure process themselves, but they could still benefit if Democrats end up taking the blame for blocking crypto legislation. Even with that pressure, he said both Republicans and Democrats remain actively involved in negotiations and both sides still want to get the bill done.
Tax policy is already the next target
Porter said crypto policy groups are already looking past the Clarity Act to the next major legislative fight: taxation. He pointed to issues including staking rewards, mining income, and small crypto transactions. That means the current bill is only one step in a broader digital asset policy agenda, and its fate now depends on whether Congress can settle the key disputes before election-year politics take over the schedule.