Odaily Planet Daily, citing CCTV News, reported that Qin Tian, deputy director of the Middle East Institute at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, said the ceasefire memorandum that the United States and Iran are set to sign appears relatively limited in both content and effectiveness based on currently disclosed information. In his assessment, the document is closer to a relatively weak agreement than a comprehensive settlement.
Different readings of the agreement text
Qin said the United States and Iran each have their own interpretation and description of the memorandum’s text. That difference matters because even if the two sides form a written arrangement around a ceasefire, the way each side explains the document can affect how it is understood and implemented. Based on the information disclosed so far, the memorandum does not appear to provide the features of a strongly binding agreement.
He also noted that the agreement does not offer a clear and thorough solution to some of the key contradictions and key issues between Washington and Tehran. Those issues will still have to be handled through the next stage of negotiations and bargaining. In that sense, the ceasefire memorandum is described as a phased arrangement for the current situation rather than a final settlement of the core disputes between the two sides.
Military standoff and Israel-related factors remain
Qin further said that accidental clashes between the two sides, along with the Israel factor, will interfere with subsequent negotiations. At present, the military confrontation between the United States and Iran in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz still exists. The tensions in these areas have not disappeared simply because a ceasefire memorandum is about to be signed.
On the Lebanon front, Israel is still striking Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon. Qin said this may also trigger larger exchanges of fire and conflict between Iran and Israel, creating a negative impact on the follow-up talks between the United States and Iran. His analysis indicates that the signing of the memorandum does not mean regional security risks have been removed, and that the next round of negotiations will still face multiple complicated factors.