Bitcoin and equities moved lower on July 14 as oil climbed after a renewed escalation between the U.S. and Iran, according to CoinDesk’s Daybook newsletter. Bitcoin fell over the past 24 hours to $62,600, with the report also displaying a BTC price of $62,886.39, as traders cut exposure to riskier assets amid inflation concerns linked to rising energy prices.
Brent crude gained nearly 4% over the same period. CoinDesk said the move reflected renewed open conflict between the U.S. and Iran and revived the so-called “Nacho” trade, short for “Not a Chance Hormuz Opens,” a wager that the strategic waterway will remain shut.
Across markets, the broader CoinDesk 20 Index fell 0.6%. European equity benchmarks were down about 1%, while U.S. index futures slipped 0.3%.
Hormuz disruption pushed oil to a four-week high
CoinDesk said attacks on tankers have reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Before the conflict, the strait carried about one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies. It has now been de-facto closed for 136 days, and oil prices reached a four-week high after hostilities resumed.
The report said the latest move reversed part of the earlier peace trade that had helped bitcoin recover from its late-June lows. Higher oil prices raise near-term inflation risks, lifting Treasury yields and cutting demand for rate-sensitive assets.
Reopening odds fell as rate-hike bets rose
With fighting back in focus, perceived odds that Hormuz would reopen by the end of the year dropped from 65% to 56%. Traders were seen assigning almost no chance to a reopening by the end of this month.
Prediction markets put the probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase this month at 36%. That shift pushed the 2-year Treasury yield to 4.28%, extending a rate-hike trade that CoinDesk said had previously weighed on both bitcoin and gold.
June CPI became the next market test
The U.S. June consumer price index report was due later in the day and stood out as the next major data point. Headline inflation was expected to slow to 3.8% year over year from 4.2%, while core inflation was forecast to remain at 2.9%.
CoinDesk said a softer reading could cool July rate-hike bets. A hotter-than-expected print, on the other hand, would likely reinforce the case for tighter policy.
Other items highlighted in CoinDesk’s market roundup
In the “What’s trending” section, the newsletter pointed to several related stories and market items.
- Reuters reported that Iran and the U.S. launched new attacks and battled over control of the Strait of Hormuz. According to that item, Iran fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. air base in Jordan on Tuesday, while the U.S. attacked Iranian targets for five hours, lifting oil prices to four-week highs.
- Another CoinDesk report, citing Arkham data, said wallets identified as being tied to the U.S. government moved about $288 million in seized bitcoin and ether to Coinbase Prime on Monday.
- A separate CoinDesk market story said major cryptocurrencies came under pressure as traders raised bets on a Federal Reserve rate increase as soon as July, ahead of key U.S. inflation data and congressional testimony from Chair Kevin Warsh.
Altcoins still showed little strength against bitcoin
The report also referred to a chart tracking the weekly ratio of altcoin market capitalization, excluding the top 10 tokens, to bitcoin’s market capitalization.
That ratio has stagnated after failing to break above a core resistance line. CoinDesk’s takeaway was that altcoins currently show no clear momentum relative to bitcoin, with no signs of a near-term directional shift.
Additional headlines listed on the page
The page also listed other recent or popular stories:
- The European Central Bank selected firms including Deutsche Bank and Revolut for a digital euro pilot.
- Japan’s biggest card network partnered with Circle to bring stablecoins to 40 million merchants.
- Bitcoin’s BIP-110 sparked a dispute over who gets to decide Bitcoin’s future.
- Prediction markets outpaced traditional sportsbooks during a $50 billion World Cup breakout.
- Bitcoin’s “great rotation” saw long-term holders pass supply to a new generation of buyers.
- Bitcoin steadied at $62,600 as South Koreans fled a stock rout for crypto.
- Bulls in XRP and ether grew louder as prices fell, signaling more trouble ahead.
- A live update tracked bitcoin holding $62,600 as the Iran conflict reignited and CPI approached.
- The U.S. government moved $288 million in seized bitcoin and ether to Coinbase Prime.
- A solo bitcoin miner made $200,000 using $150 worth of equipment.
Exchange-volume data mentioned at the bottom of the page
At the bottom, the page also referenced a separate data point on centralized exchanges. CEX trading volumes rose in June for the first time in five months, with spot volume up 15.3% to $1.11 trillion and RWA perpetual volume reaching a record $311 billion.