Escalating tension between Washington and Tehran pushed global markets back into risk-off mode, sending crypto prices lower alongside equities while oil extended its rally. Hopes for a negotiated pause in the conflict had supported a brief rebound, but that move faded after new strikes and stalled diplomatic contacts kept the standoff in place.
Ceasefire expectations fade as military activity continues
The latest market pullback followed the collapse of optimism around a ceasefire. According to the report, military action continued and diplomatic negotiations failed to produce a breakthrough. The White House pause on operations targeting Iranian energy infrastructure is due to expire in two days, and no final ceasefire had been reached as of Thursday, with hostilities between Tehran and Tel Aviv still ongoing.
President Donald Trump added to the focus on the conflict with a post on Truth Social, saying Iranian representatives were privately seeking a deal while publicly resisting talks. He warned that continued escalation could bring consequences that could not be reversed.
Oil surges, while the S&P 500 posts a 5% decline
Energy markets reacted quickly. Brent crude futures rose 4.9% to $107.32 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained 4.2% to $94.07. The move reflected concern that a prolonged conflict could disrupt global energy supply. Since the confrontation began, oil prices have climbed by nearly one-third, according to the report.
Equities moved the other way. The article said the S&P 500 has lost 5% since the initial flare-up. Researchers at Renaissance Macro also pointed to weaker confidence in a near-term settlement, noting that prediction channels now imply a 38% chance of a resolution in April, down from 50% earlier in the week.
Hedge funds cut exposure and crypto follows the broader retreat
Jonathan Golub, chief equity strategist at Seaport Global, said uncertainty drove hedge funds to reduce risk exposure quickly. He noted renewed interest in technology and financial stocks, while industrials, materials, consumer staples, and healthcare saw notable outflows.
The same shift spread into digital assets. The report said Bitcoin, XRP, and Ethereum all declined as investors stepped away from higher-volatility positions. That pattern matched behavior seen during earlier geopolitical shocks, when crypto valuations tended to move with broader changes in market sentiment rather than trade independently.
Gold and silver soften as traders watch Fed signals
Precious metals also weakened, with gold and silver softening as commodity prices fluctuated under the pressure of the US-Iran confrontation. On the macro side, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 210,000 initial jobless claims last week, in line with economist forecasts. The data offered some stability, but the jump in energy costs kept attention on inflation pressure and stagflation risk as markets waited for the Federal Reserve’s next policy signals.