The US-Iran conflict has entered its 45th day, with peace talks in Islamabad collapsing and the US Navy imposing a full blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. The Trump-Xi summit scheduled for May 14-15 in Beijing is now hanging by a thread. Elizabeth Economy, a China scholar at Stanford's Hoover Institution and former senior adviser on China at the US Commerce Department, said on Tuesday that Beijing may not roll out the red carpet for Trump if the war with Iran continues — effectively canceling the summit.
21-Hour Talks Fail, Strait Blockade Takes Effect
Over the weekend, Islamabad-mediated negotiations lasted 21 hours before collapsing without an agreement. Washington laid out three non-negotiable demands: halt uranium enrichment, dismantle all nuclear facilities, and open the Strait of Hormuz. The gap between both sides was too wide to bridge. On April 13, Trump announced a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which went into effect immediately. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned that any "wrong move" would drag the situation into a deadly spiral.
Polymarket Data: Odds Still Above 70%
Despite the escalating geopolitical tension, prediction market Polymarket shows that the probability of Trump meeting Xi before the end of May remains above 70%, and above 80% before the end of June. The numbers have barely budged despite the war news.
Bitcoin Rallies to $74.3K — 'War Immunity' in Play?
Interestingly, the Bitcoin market has not sold off on the conflict. BTC is currently trading around $74,300, appearing to exhibit a kind of "war immunity" during this geopolitical storm. However, if oil prices keep rising, inflation data may stay stubborn, pushing the Fed's rate cuts further down the road. Some analysts describe the current Bitcoin bounce as built on "thin diplomatic ice" — if the conflict escalates again, sentiment could reverse sharply.