The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the January 2026 employment report on February 11 at 21:30 Beijing time. The data showed the labor market remained surprisingly resilient, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 130,000, well above the consensus estimate of 66,000 to 70,000. The unemployment rate held steady near 4.3%. Job gains were concentrated in healthcare, social assistance, and construction, easing fears of an abrupt economic slowdown.
Strong Jobs Data Delay Rate Cut Expectations
Before the release, markets had widely expected the Federal Reserve to deliver its first rate cut in June. However, the robust jobs report reduced the urgency for immediate easing. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point cut in June fell to 48.2%, barely above the 41% chance of no change. The odds of a July rate cut jumped to 46.3%, while the probability of holding rates steady in July dropped to 26.5%. The market now sees July as the most likely starting point for the Fed's easing cycle.
Bitcoin Breaks $68,790, Ethereum Tops $2,000
Cryptocurrency markets reacted positively to the macro data. Bitcoin spiked to $68,790 shortly after the release, then consolidated around $68,000. Ethereum followed suit, crossing the $2,000 mark to trade at $2,005. The broader altcoin market saw modest gains, with traders pricing in a less hawkish Fed path. However, the delay of a June cut means that easy liquidity conditions remain distant, keeping volatility in check.
Going forward, investors will closely watch February's inflation data and any Fed commentary for further clues on the rate trajectory.