EX.IO Research says the second half of 2026 has entered one of its most signal-heavy stretches, with several major market events packed into the next eight weeks. The schedule includes the Sept. 11 US CPI release, the Sept. 15 Senate vote on the CLARITY Act on the same day the Federal Open Market Committee opens, the Bank of Japan policy meeting on Sept. 17-18, and the Nov. 3 US midterm elections.
In the institute’s reading, those signals are not separate stories. They point to a single shift: the global pricing anchor is loosening, driven not only by economic data but also by a broader turn in which immediate national interests are displacing older political and economic alignments. Once that anchor moves, both Web2 and Web3 assets have to be repriced.
Four market lines and one geopolitical risk are tightening at the same time
The report says global markets have flashed three warning signals over the past two weeks. The US 10-year Treasury yield touched 4.85% intraday on Sept. 9, the highest level since November 2023. USD/JPY fell through 155 to 153.80 after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made remarks seen as supportive of the yen. Brent crude rose above $100 a barrel for the first time since July 23.
A fourth line runs through Capitol Hill. The CLARITY Act, described in the report as the most important piece of crypto legislation in more than a decade, faces a make-or-break Senate vote on Sept. 15. Add the possibility of further escalation in the US-Iran conflict, and EX.IO says markets are dealing with a five-part pricing window built around rates, FX, oil, legislation and geopolitics.
Why long-dated Treasuries are being sold
The report argues that the first step in understanding the Treasury selloff is identifying who is selling and why. It notes that the 30-year Treasury yield closed at five-year highs for three straight sessions at the end of July, reaching 5.27% on July 31, and then climbed back to 5.25%-5.29% on Sept. 8-9.
The shape of the curve matters more than the headline level. During the week in late July, the 2-year yield fell by 4 basis points while the 2s30s spread widened from 83 basis points to 98 basis points. EX.IO says that is not a standard rate-hike trade, which would usually push the front end higher first. Instead, the market appears to be demanding a larger term premium for holding long-duration Treasuries. In the report’s framing, investors are not only worried about policy rates. They are asking whether the long bond itself still deserves the same trust.
EX.IO breaks the selling pressure into three layers. The first is fiscal supply. With deficits still expanding, long-dated issuance has kept rising, and institutions including Barclays have already warned that the market’s absorption capacity is under strain. The second is the structural pullback of overseas buyers, with Japan at the center. The report says Japan sold a record roughly $88 billion in foreign securities in August, while about 70% of its FX reserves are allocated to US Treasuries. The third is the limited effect of policy offsets. On Sept. 9, the US Treasury announced $60 billion in long-bond buybacks, but traders were disappointed and yields moved higher instead of lower. The report adds that Bessent raised the minimum size of a single buyback from $2 billion to at least $4 billion and extended the expanded buyback window to Nov. 4, but markets still judged that response too small relative to Japan’s sales and the scale of new issuance.
At the same time, high-yield credit spreads tightened to around 268 basis points, near five-year lows. EX.IO says that contrast shows the repricing is centered on rates, not on credit. The damage is falling on discount rates rather than default expectations.
Japan’s intervention and the US response
The report describes the current confrontation as a game some in the market have called a financial “Pearl Harbor 2.0.” Data from Japan’s Ministry of Finance showed that between July 30 and Aug. 26, the Japanese government and central bank used JPY 15.4 trillion to buy yen and sell dollars. For a country with roughly 70% of its reserves tied to US Treasuries, defending the currency means liquidating dollar assets.
EX.IO says that choice sends a clear message: when exchange-rate stability and alliance politics cannot both be preserved, Tokyo is choosing the former. In its view, older multilateral financial coordination is giving way to direct competition built around national priorities.
Washington’s answer came through signaling rather than direct asset sales. On Aug. 31, during the G20 finance ministers’ meeting, Bessent told CNBC that “the Japanese government and the BOJ will take actions that strengthen the yen,” adding, “I know things the market doesn’t know,” and saying he would not hesitate to join further coordinated intervention. After that, USD/JPY broke through the 155 level and fell to 153.80 on Sept. 7, triggering large stop-loss flows and options-related selling. The report says the yen has gained about 4% since the start of September, making it the strongest G10 currency over that stretch.
EX.IO says Bessent’s words landed with force because they aligned with a turning point in monetary policy expectations. Overnight index swaps were pricing a 97% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the BOJ’s Sept. 17-18 meeting. Reuters, according to the report, cited sources saying officials inside the central bank were discussing a faster pace of tightening. ING’s fair-value model showed the yen still undervalued by about 20% against the dollar.
That in turn raises pressure on carry trades. For years, capital borrowed cheaply in yen has been deployed into higher-yielding assets elsewhere. Market estimates for the size of that trade range from $500 billion to $20 trillion, according to the report. EX.IO points back to July and August 2024, when an unexpected BOJ rate increase combined with intervention drove USD/JPY down nearly 14% in two months and was followed by a global equity selloff in early August of that year. It also says that when the yen jumped in February this year, crypto, with its round-the-clock trading and deepest immediate liquidity, became an early source of funds for carry trade unwinds.
The report does not argue that history will repeat in exactly the same form. It does say that as long as the combination of a stronger yen and a narrower US-Japan rate differential remains in place, the global liquidity drain associated with carry unwinds will keep running. The next immediate marker is the BOJ meeting, but before that, the Federal Reserve meets first.
The Fed under Kevin Warsh: the rule change matters as much as the decision
EX.IO says the unusual feature of the Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting is not only the outcome. It is the way the rules have changed since Kevin Warsh took over as Fed chair in May. At the Jackson Hole conference on Aug. 28, Warsh delivered what the report calls his hawkish debut, announcing an end to the forward-guidance approach used for years and restating the need to keep inflation at 2%.
The macro data still sit well above that goal. The report lists July PCE inflation at 3.7% year over year and core PCE at 3.3%. Market pricing for a 25-basis-point hike in September rose from about 35% before Warsh’s speech to 55%-62% afterward. Then, on Sept. 4, August nonfarm payrolls came in at 162,000, far above an expected 53,000, helping to keep that probability around the 60% area.
The report also highlights the Fed’s July vote split, which came in at 9-3, with three regional Fed presidents dissenting in favor of a rate increase. It adds that the median June dot plot stood at 3.8%, above the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. In EX.IO’s view, whether the Fed hikes in September or not, markets have already moved into what Warsh has defined as a post-guidance era. Officials are no longer sketching the path in advance. Each incoming data point is back to carrying full pricing power.
The next one is close. August CPI is due on Sept. 11. The report lists July CPI at 3.4% year over year, core CPI at 2.5%, and energy inflation at 14.7%. In a setup that is effectively balanced going into the meeting, any surprise could be amplified.
EX.IO also points to a policy conflict inside Washington. Treasury buybacks and the Fed’s hawkish messaging are not moving in the same direction. The report cites an RSM chief economist saying that “the Treasury’s actions are weakening Warsh.” In that environment, it argues, long-end volatility is unlikely to settle down quickly.
Midterm elections and the CLARITY Act
The Nov. 3 US midterm elections are the next major political variable in the report’s framework. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are up for election. Republicans currently hold narrow control in both chambers, 53-47 in the Senate and 220-215 in the House. EX.IO says mainstream institutions generally see Democrats with a slight edge in the race to retake the House.
Historical patterns are part of the argument. Since 1974, the S&P 500’s average return from Aug. 1 to election day in midterm years has been only 1.7%, while the average gain over the three months after the vote has been 5.7%. The report says uncertainty typically suppresses risk appetite until the result is known.
If the election produces divided government, EX.IO expects a familiar script: conflict between Congress and the White House, fights over government funding, and the return of the 2027 debt-ceiling issue. None of that would help a Treasury market already dealing with supply pressure. The report also notes that the Treasury’s enlarged buyback window ends on Nov. 4, the day after the election.
A second political variable arrives even earlier and has direct consequences for crypto markets. On Sept. 15, the Senate is set to hold a cloture vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, or CLARITY Act. It needs 60 votes to move into full debate.
The bill has already taken a difficult path. The House passed it in July 2025 by 294-134. The Senate Banking Committee advanced it in May this year by 15-9. Floor action, however, has repeatedly stalled over ethics provisions. Democrats want language that would limit officials from profiting from crypto assets, with attention focused on the Trump family’s disclosed $1.4 billion in crypto income. Republicans hold only 53 Senate seats, so at least seven Democrats would need to support cloture. On Polymarket, according to the report, the contract pricing the bill to become law this year is only around 20%, implying an 80% market view that it will fail to finish the process in 2026.
EX.IO says the difference between passage and failure is large for both US and global digital-asset markets. If the Sept. 15 hurdle is cleared, the bill would still need floor debate, bicameral reconciliation and the president’s signature, making late autumn the earliest plausible finish. Even so, the report says the establishment of a legal framework by itself would be enough to push institutions to reassess US regulatory tail risk.
If the cloture vote fails, the Senate moves into an October election recess. EX.IO cites Galaxy Research as warning that once the legislative calendar slips into September, contentious bills run directly into election incentives and become much harder to schedule. At that point, only the post-election lame-duck session remains. If that window closes too, the bill expires with the current Congress and must start over in the next one.
The report then extends the timeline. If the White House changes hands in January 2029 and the successor is a Democrat who does not support crypto, the policy tailwind for Web3 could be interrupted. In that case, regulatory ambiguity and a reset legislative process would leave valuation anchors for major crypto assets under even greater uncertainty.
Oil, the Gulf and the changing safe-haven script
Beyond domestic politics and central-bank policy, EX.IO says the Persian Gulf is the hardest variable to model. Its timeline starts with the outbreak of fighting on Feb. 28, the collapse of a temporary agreement in June, and the resumption of the Strait of Hormuz blockade on July 14, followed by a new escalation in early September.
On Sept. 2, Iran launched missiles and drones at US military targets in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates, according to the report. On Sept. 8, US Central Command said it had destroyed five Iranian oil transport vessels. Brent then moved above $100 and settled at $101.30, taking its gain for the year to nearly 60%.
The US Energy Information Administration estimated July supply outages at 5.5 million barrels a day. Average US gasoline prices rose to $4.01 a gallon from $3.14 a year earlier. EX.IO describes this as a classic supply-side stagflation shock: oil raises inflation while restraining growth, leaving the Fed caught between tightening to fight prices and staying put to protect activity. In the report’s view, that is one of the deeper reasons the market has priced a relatively high probability of a September rate hike.
The more notable shift, however, is in safe-haven behavior. Textbook macro would usually treat geopolitical stress as supportive for Treasuries and the dollar. EX.IO says the current episode is different. Long-dated sovereign debt is being sold because inflation premia are rising, while capital is rotating toward assets without sovereign credit exposure, including gold. The report places gold near $4,390 an ounce in early September and gives a 2026 range of $4,100-$5,500.
In EX.IO’s view, when even the most reliable ally is selling Treasuries for domestic reasons, sovereign long bonds begin to lose their monopoly over the ultimate safe-haven role. That, it argues, is part of the macro setting in which new financial narratives across both Web2 and Web3 can develop.
How crypto markets are expressing the shift
The report says Web3’s response is already visible in fund flows. Bitcoin spot ETFs took in about $3.5 billion in net inflows in August, the strongest month since September 2025. On Sept. 3, daily net inflows reached $731 million, the largest one-day total since January. Yet just two trading days earlier, more than $200 million had left in a single day.
EX.IO’s reading is that institutional money is still participating, but with lower loyalty and faster rotation. That instability in positioning is being treated as a direct macro signal rather than a crypto-specific one.
Even with pressure from rates and geopolitics, total net assets in Bitcoin ETFs have held around $103.3 billion, equal to about 6.3% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization, according to the report. At the same time, inflows into most altcoin ETFs have fallen sharply. EX.IO says a flight to quality is now visible inside Web3 itself.
Pre-IPO pricing and tokenization
The report also argues that today’s Web3 is no longer only a market that grows through token issuance. In August, EX.IO said crypto venues were using pre-IPO perpetual contracts to begin price discovery for technology companies before their public listings, moving ahead of traditional Web2 market structures. That would make Web3 not just a passive recipient of macro liquidity, but also a 24/7 microstructure that can serve as an early indicator for global risk pricing.
It notes that several exchanges have recently rushed to list Pre-IPO tokens tied to high-profile companies, even though the market may not know whether some of those products are backed by underlying assets. In that context, the report says compliant market infrastructure matters for confidence.
As one example, EX.IO says the Hong Kong-licensed virtual asset trading platform announced in May that it had completed the listing and distribution of Asia’s first compliant tokenized depositary receipt product linked to SpaceX equity. The platform said the structure provides institutions and professional investors with an end-to-end framework to access top-tier global private-equity opportunities in a more efficient and compliant way.
The report adds that tokenization and on-chain settlement have reached the agenda of major central banks, pointing to this year’s Jackson Hole theme, “Financial Innovation: Payments and Policy,” and public remarks by a European Central Bank executive in favor of putting central bank money on-chain. In that setting, the path of the CLARITY Act will help determine whether the institutionalization trend in the US keeps moving or gets stranded in politics.
What EX.IO says to watch next
EX.IO closes by saying investors may get more from watching a handful of dates than from trying to call the direction of any single asset. The institute highlights the Sept. 11 CPI release, the Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting, the Sept. 17-18 BOJ meeting, the Nov. 3 midterm elections, the Sept. 15 Senate CLARITY vote, and the Strait of Hormuz as the red line on the geopolitical side.
Its broader conclusion is that when allies begin to act independently, the loosening of the pricing anchor is no longer a technical adjustment. It becomes a larger repricing regime. In that environment, EX.IO says, position discipline and liquidity reserves matter more.