The U.S. Labor Department reported January nonfarm payrolls added 130,000 jobs, well above the 66,000 consensus estimate and the largest monthly gain since April 2025. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% from 4.4% expected. Initial market reaction lifted both equities and crypto, but the rally quickly faded.
Fed Governors Temper Rate-Cut Hopes, Wall Street Warns of Revisions
Two Fed governors stressed that rate cuts should not be rushed, even after the payrolls beat. Separately, Wall Street analysts warned that annual benchmark revisions could slash job growth by a million-plus in 2025. The double blow reversed early gains. Bitcoin, which had broken above $68,000, retreated to the $66,000 level, giving back all of its intraday advance.
BTC Stuck Below Long-Term Downtrend Line
Bitcoin has traded below its long-term downtrend line for nearly four consecutive months, dating back to October 10, 2025. To flip the bearish structure, the price needs to reclaim and hold above $86,000 — a level that would allow discussion about whether the bear market has ended. Given current momentum and macro headwinds, even reaching $70,000 would be a strong performance, and the key resistance at $76,000 must first become support before a run at $80,000 is feasible. Near-term odds of such a breakout remain low.
CPI Data in Focus; Rate-Cut Timeline Already Pushed Back
Markets now turn to weekly jobless claims (tonight) and, more importantly, the CPI report on Friday. A favorable CPI print could bring rate-cut expectations forward. Currently, the first rate cut is priced for July, a full month later than the June expectation that prevailed before the jobs report. Each shift toward earlier cuts is bullish for risk assets. Based on recent patterns, CPI is likely to come in line with forecasts. Unless fresh negative catalysts emerge, Friday could bring a relief bounce.