With less than two months left before the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections, President Donald Trump’s approval rating and job performance are emerging as a major factor in whether Republicans can hold their congressional majorities.
According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, Trump’s net disapproval rating is close to twice where it stood at the same point in 2018. Voters are broadly dissatisfied with the economy and the war with Iran, while Democratic voters are currently showing stronger enthusiasm than Republicans.
House control remains narrowly contested
Republicans now hold a slim 218-214 advantage in the House of Representatives. If Democrats retake control of the chamber, they would be able to open investigations into the Trump administration and push the White House to compromise on most legislative matters.
Senate path is still difficult for Democrats
In the Senate, Democrats need to flip four seats from Republicans to gain a majority, but the current electoral map is not favorable to them. Independent analysts said only nine of the 35 Senate races are highly competitive.
Even if Democrats win Georgia, Maine, Michigan and North Carolina, they would still need to capture at least two more seats from Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas. Trump won those four states by double-digit margins in 2024.
Republicans retain structural advantages
Republicans still hold advantages in redistricting and fundraising. New House district maps could help the party gain as many as 10 seats on a net basis, and a Trump-backed super PAC currently has $400 million in reserve.
At the same time, the cost of living remains a major test. Energy prices, tariffs and trade conflicts have affected voters in several key states.
Midterms are often treated as a referendum on the sitting president
Election experts said midterm elections are typically viewed as a referendum on the incumbent president. Whether Trump can energize Republican voters again is likely to be one of the key questions in the race.