The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has announced that the release of non-farm payrolls for October and November will be delayed to December 16 due to a government shutdown, arriving six days after the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of the year (expected around December 10). This delay means the jobs report will not directly influence the Fed's December decision, elevating the importance of forward guidance.
Market Expects 92% Probability of Rate Cut
Current federal funds futures indicate a 92% probability of a rate cut in December. Despite the data delay, markets have largely priced in a cut. However, the Fed's communication on the 2025 economic outlook could pose significant risks to the U.S. dollar and short-term yields. The Bureau noted a survey collection rate of only 80.2%, well below normal levels, suggesting potential for substantial revisions in the final report.
Investors Should Monitor Alternative Indicators
In the absence of payrolls data, market participants are advised to track weekly jobless claims, ADP employment reports, and ISM manufacturing and services indices to gauge labor market conditions. Meanwhile, speeches from Fed officials ahead of the meeting will be closely watched, as any hints on the future path could trigger volatility.
Implications for Cryptocurrency Markets
Macro policy uncertainty also matters for digital assets. Rate cut expectations have recently boosted risk assets like Bitcoin, but a hawkish surprise from the Fed could spark a correction. Previous analysis suggested that rising bond yields could trigger Bitcoin's super cycle (Rising Bond Yields Could Trigger Bitcoin's Super Cycle), and investors should remain alert to the spillover effects of macro shifts.