US activity estimated in the tens of billions
Consulting firm Crane Zeng has released a report stating that US users appear to have contributed substantial trading activity to offshore prediction markets, even though some of those platforms should theoretically block US users. According to the report, US users generated an estimated $11 billion to $34 billion in trading volume on offshore prediction markets. That range represents 12.5% to 31.5% of total US prediction market volume.
The report gives particular attention to Polymarket. Crane Zeng estimates that Polymarket alone accounted for roughly $11 billion to $27 billion in related trading volume from US users, and the report describes that estimate as “conservative.” Within the report’s figures, Polymarket represents a large share of the offshore activity attributed to US users.
2030 projection and regulatory boundaries
Crane Zeng also projects that, if the relative share between regulated markets and offshore markets remains unchanged, annual offshore prediction market trading volume by US users could reach $133 billion by 2030. The report comes as prediction markets have grown rapidly over the past two years, with Kalshi and Polymarket cited as the main examples. Prediction markets allow participants to trade around the outcomes of specific events, with market prices reflecting trading activity around those outcomes.
On the regulatory side, the source notes that the US CFTC has recently taken a more relaxed stance toward domestic prediction markets. However, offshore platforms without permission remain prohibited from offering services to US users. Polymarket was barred from operating in the United States in 2022 after serving US customers without registration. The Crane Zeng report places its volume estimates within that same framework of offshore access, platform share and the boundaries of US market permission.