The CLARITY Act, a market structure bill closely watched by the U.S. crypto industry, appears set to miss another key deadline. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said this week that the legislation is unlikely to reach a vote before Congress breaks for its August recess, casting doubt on its path this year.
Polymarket data cited in the report shows the chance of the CLARITY Act passing this year stood at about 37% as of July 24. That is well below the level seen earlier this spring, when the market briefly priced the odds above 80%. The industry had been treating Aug. 7 as a key deadline, and the report says missing that point would materially weaken the chances of passage in 2026.
Thune signals the bill is running out of time before recess
Thune said he at least wants to get the CLARITY Act moving and “see where the votes are.” That remark left open the possibility of later action, but it also made clear that a pre-recess vote is now unlikely.
White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt struck a less pessimistic tone. According to the report, Witt said Thune’s view was “a little puzzling” and added that he is “slightly more optimistic,” pointing out that the Senate remains in session during the first week of August.
The main sticking point is ethics, not market structure
The report says the bill’s basic goal is to create a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets and move crypto more firmly into mainstream finance. On that core issue, the two parties are not far apart. The negotiations have instead been held up by conflict-of-interest questions tied to Trump and his family’s crypto business dealings.
Democrats want stricter ethics provisions that would limit the ability of a president and federal officials to profit from crypto assets. Trump had previously opposed that kind of restriction. Republicans have since softened their position and produced a revised draft that would bar elected officials from profiting from crypto trading.
Democrats, however, do not view the revised language as enough. They argue the updated ethics section still leaves obvious loopholes and does not address large gains that Trump’s family may have made through meme coin-related projects. As framed in the report, Republicans are trying to close one gap, while Democrats are trying to address another.
Ron Hammond says the votes exist, but politics is louder
Wintermute head of policy Ron Hammond pointed to a separate layer of resistance. He said Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer has recently asked members of his party to focus on Trump and related corruption issues ahead of the midterm elections, a move that could directly reduce Democratic support for the CLARITY Act.
Hammond also said opponents in banking and crypto have slowed the bill by dragging out the legislative schedule. Even so, he said he remains confident about the underlying support, adding: “The votes are actually there, it’s just that election politics is louder.”
There may still be a year-end window
Even if the CLARITY Act misses the recess deadline, the report says Congress may still have a window to take it up before the end of the year. That does not mean an easy path. Government funding and defense matters remain ahead of it on the agenda, and those issues could continue to push crypto legislation further back.
The timing is also complicated by the approach of the November midterm elections. If the balance of power in Congress shifts, the pace and direction of digital asset legislation could change again.
Prediction markets reflect fading confidence
Polymarket’s pricing shows how much sentiment has cooled. As of July 24, the contract implied roughly a 37% chance of passage this year, down from a high above 80% in the spring. The report argues that the bill is not being held back by disagreement over its technical structure as much as by ethics language and election-driven maneuvering.
For the crypto industry, the wait is about more than one bill. What is at stake is a regulatory framework that could give digital assets a formal route into mainstream finance. Whether that happens this year may not become much clearer until after November.