As of March 29, 2026, the United States has deployed over 50,000 military personnel across the Middle East, an increase of roughly 10,000 in recent days. Marines, Army infantry, and units of the 82nd Airborne Division have been added to a force that was already substantial before the first bombs fell. Multiple outlets including The New York Times, The Washington Post, and Reuters have confirmed these deployments, but none report troops on Iranian soil.
Pentagon Drafts Ground Operation Plans
The Washington Post reported on March 28 that Pentagon planners are preparing for weeks of limited ground operations inside Iran — raids by special operations forces and infantry targeting sites near Kharg Island (which handles about 90% of Iran’s oil exports) and coastal positions near the Strait of Hormuz. These remain contingency plans; no order has been issued or authorized.
Reuters disclosed on March 24 that the U.S. was expected to send thousands more troops. Axios detailed on March 27 that the White House and Pentagon are considering at least 10,000 additional combat forces. The Wall Street Journal and Iran International noted total ground forces could exceed 17,000 if these increases are approved. CNN reported that over 1,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne were preparing to deploy by March 24. Fox News said on March 29 that 3,500 Marines aboard the USS Tripoli had arrived in the region, ready for ground operations if needed. President Trump has neither ruled out nor ordered a ground component; administration officials say they prefer to avoid a ground invasion if possible.
Iran Speaker Warns of Market Manipulation
Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned this week that market moves around the conflict are often “engineered” rather than natural. He described pre-market “news” as deliberate setups designed for certain actors to profit before reversals, and advised traders to take the opposite side of the initial price move. This echoes Iran's broader accusation that U.S.-related announcements around the war have repeatedly created artificial or insider-information-driven volatility benefiting specific players.
Prediction Markets Bet on Entry into Iran
Polymarket’s contract “By what date will US forces enter Iran?” has attracted $49.6 million in total volume. The market currently gives a 13% chance by March 31, 71% by April 30, and 78% by December 31, 2026. The March 31 contract alone accounts for $34.5 million of that volume, indicating heavy short-term speculation. Views on the platform show traders watching special operations activity, though sharp price swings have also been attributed to large one-off trades from individual accounts. Iran-related prediction markets have come under scrutiny over the past few weeks for possible insider trading linked to the timing of previous airstrikes, though no official findings have been released.
Economist: U.S. Is Losing War with Iran
Economist Steve Hanke says Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. is bankrupt, and Trump’s options are running out. The conflict has entered its fifth week, with the Air Force doing most of the work. This pattern — air and naval strikes first, ground options held in reserve — mirrors early stages of previous U.S. military campaigns in the region. Whether it ends there depends on the next round of negotiations and whether each side is willing to accept terms on the table. The situation remains fluid. Any confirmed entry of U.S. forces into Iranian territory would mark a major escalation and immediately reverberate globally. As of March 29, that has not happened.