Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe has warned that 99% of altcoins could fail by 2026, comparing the current market reset to the post-dot-com shakeout that wiped out a large number of weak projects. In his view, the sector is going through a harsh but necessary cleansing phase.
Even so, van de Poppe is not broadly bearish on crypto. He argued that altcoins are beginning to regain strength under a more supportive macro backdrop, with the market now moving through a base-building period after the capitulation seen in the fourth quarter of 2025.
A 2–4 Month Base Before Breakout?
According to his framework, this post-capitulation phase typically lasts around 2 to 4 months before a meaningful breakout takes shape. Once that happens, he expects some altcoins to stage sharp recoveries of roughly 150% to 400% from their lows.
Among the names he highlighted, Arbitrum stands out as a potential buy-the-dip opportunity. He also said he expects Bitcoin to push toward fresh highs near $77,000, suggesting that BTC could remain the main driver of broader market direction.
Not Everyone Agrees on Timing
Still, the market is far from unified. Other commentators, including Crypto Talk, argue that it is too early to aggressively buy altcoins. Their view is that the market still needs clearer structural confirmation before a true altcoin season can begin.
The takeaway is a split outlook: the broader altcoin universe may face severe attrition, but a smaller group of stronger projects could benefit once the washout is complete. For investors, that implies a market where risks remain high, and any upside may be increasingly concentrated in a limited number of tokens.