VanEck said in a research blog post published Thursday that its base-case framework values bitcoin at about $2.9 million by 2050. The firm did not present the figure as a standard price target. It framed the number as a valuation exercise built around how bitcoin’s role could change if adoption expands far beyond its current use as a trading asset.
The report, titled Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, was written by Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital assets research, and Patrick Bush, a senior investment analyst for digital assets. Under the base case, the authors estimate annualized returns of roughly 15% through 2050.
Adoption assumptions drive the valuation framework
Instead of relying on traditional equity valuation tools, VanEck models bitcoin through adoption scenarios. One of the central assumptions is that bitcoin could emerge as a settlement asset in global trade. In the firm’s framework, bitcoin could eventually account for 5% to 10% of international trade settlement volume. A second assumption is that central banks gradually assign a small share of reserve holdings to bitcoin as part of long-term diversification away from sovereign currencies.
VanEck also says those assumptions are far removed from present conditions. Bitcoin currently has a negligible role in trade settlement, and major central banks do not hold it as a reserve asset. The firm notes that its base case depends on regulatory clarity, operational infrastructure, and political acceptance that have not yet taken shape.
High volatility remains part of the thesis
The report keeps volatility at the center of the model. VanEck projects long-term annualized volatility in a range of about 40% to 70%, which it compares to frontier markets rather than traditional financial assets. Even in its bear-case scenario, the firm still models positive long-term returns, reflecting what it describes as bitcoin’s rising structural relevance.
Macro conditions also carry significant weight in the analysis. According to VanEck, bitcoin’s historical price behavior has shown a closer relationship with global liquidity trends than with equities or commodities. The firm argues that correlations with broad money supply growth, together with a weakening relationship with the U.S. dollar, point to drivers that may be turning more global over time.
Portfolio case centers on limited allocations
From a portfolio construction angle, the analysis says small bitcoin allocations have historically improved risk-adjusted returns in diversified portfolios, typically in a range of 1% to 3%. VanEck adds that this should not be read as evidence that bitcoin is low risk. Its point is narrower: when position sizes stay constrained, bitcoin’s volatility has not translated proportionally into portfolio-level risk.
The framework rests on a set of long-range adoption assumptions, not a call on near-term market action. VanEck’s $2.9 million figure is presented as a model of what bitcoin could be worth if its function in the global financial system changes materially over the next several decades.